Water used to be infinite: a Brazilian tale of climate change

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of different policies to address the water supply crisis experienced by the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo during 2013 to 2015 and evaluate the resilience of its water supply system for the coming years. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used in this study is based on the system dynamics simulation paradigm, combined with empirical data obtained from the regional water authority. Findings The results from the simulations suggest that the first layer of sustainability of the water supply in the region strongly depends on how the system’s operator responds to crises, in particular how it balances policies acting on the supply and demand for the resource. Practical implications Severe water crises typically make salient the perception that water is a finite and public resource. Long-term, sustainable management of the system requires a paradigm shift from widespread, old-fashioned beliefs that water is an infinite resource. It also requires active management to increase the system’s preparedness to withstand events caused by climate change. Originality/value This study contributes to the system dynamics and water resource management literature by presenting an integrative model to evaluate the resilience of a particular water supply system. Although there are previous studies on this subject, the present one focuses on the role that the water authority plays in a crisis and especially on a specific combination of policies to address an episode of crisis in a system unprepared for it.

Water resource management through systemic approach: The case of Lake Bracciano

“…Results of scenarios Sustainability Described scenarios for the Piracicaba-Capivari-Jundiaí basin, in Brazil, predicting the deterioration of its sustainability. Santos, J. R. D., Franco, E. F., Carvalho, H. C., Armenia, S., Pompei, A., & Medaglia, C. M. 2018 Sustainability Analyzed the impacts that different intervention policies to addresses the water supply crisis experienced by the metropolitan region of São Paulo during 2013 to 2015 and evaluate how resilient the water supply system is. Rehan, R., Knight, M. A., Haas, C. T., & Unger, A. J. A.…”

“…As showed in our literature review above, some aspects about the phenomenon of water crises has thus been already studied in the past through systemic approach. This work aims, by means of that approach, at addressing a relevant problem that emerged arose in the last years, providing a top-down view of the specific case study of Lake Bracciano., which The lake faced an extreme water shortage during the summer of 2017 due to climatic conditions and increasing consumption demand (Armenia et al, 2018). Although the problem appears to be softened and mitigated thanks to the prohibition of further withdrawals issued by institutions at the end of 2017, it is very likely it will reappear again in the future, therefore a prevention analysis made by a modelling approach could be very useful and this model can be of help in those situations.…”

A system dynamics approach for basin policy design: Urmia lake case study

“…Scenario results displayed significant growth in future water supply and demand. In other research, water supply crisis was studied by Santos et al (2019). They investigated the impacts of different policies (Such policies may include incentives for storage of rainwater, smart meters, variable pricing, etc.)…”

Guidelines for water conservation in Brazil

“…Goal 6 points out the need to ensure the availability and sustainable management of water, which is quite a challenge, since many countries suffer from scarcity, deterioration of quality, and contamination of water bodies, due to the unsustainable management, (Olmstead & Stavins, 2009;González-Gómez, Martínez-Espiñeira, García-Valiñas, & García-Rubio, 2012;Wang, Chang, & Liou, 2019;Ferasso, Bares, Ogachi, & Blanco, 2021;Pinto, Carvalho, & Marques, 2021). Additionally to that, as reported in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2021), continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, including the severity of wet and dry events, with implications for flooding or drought, being water scarcity is one of the earliest concrete signals of climate change (Santos et al, 2019). Such extreme events will become more frequent and, thus, society must create resilience to face these events.…”

“…The World Economic Forum issues an annual publication regarding the top risks society will face, and year after year climate change associated risks appear in some of the top positions, both in the short and in the long term. Recent droughts in several parts of the world may be one of the first concrete symptoms of human-induced climate change (Santos et al, 2019). Nevertheless, some nations still fail to identify and address such risks, while increasingly uncertain weather events, along with over exploitation, contamination of resources and lack of infrastructure, cause water resource scarcity and impact water utilities' activities (Pinto et al, 2021).…”