Water is a common good which is fundamental for life and it is only apparently an unlimited resource. In fact, natural water resources are becoming scarce, both due to global climate change but also due to an irresponsible behavior of human beings. Lakes are perhaps among the most delicate aquatic systems due to their limited size. The objective of this paper is to propose a System Dynamics simulation model, employed in a real case study regarding the city of Rome and one of its water reserves, the Bracciano Lake, for the evaluation of environmental impacts resulting from different water exploitation/use strategies and policies, under different climatic and context scenarios. The results indicate that, as the system is currently exposed to a high risk of ecological disaster, the situation might worsen, and the disaster effectively happen; especially if meteorological conditions, like the one experienced in 2017, will occur again in the near future. However, according to certain policies and contextual situations, the risk can be avoided and ultimately mitigated. Nevertheless, models like the one presented in this paper may help water agencies and municipal administrations to explore policies and find solutions to address this fundamental problem, that may become even worst over the next years, given the potential severe consequences deriving from the current global warming trends.
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