Water Levels Surge on Great Lakes

Gronewold, Andrew D.; Clites, Anne H.; Bruxer, Jacob; Kompoltowicz, Keith W.; Smith, Joeseph P.; Hunter, Timothy; Wong, Cary

doi:10.1029/2015eo026023

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…In other words, projecting fall hydrologic response to extreme winter conditions is complicated by summer and fall meteorological conditions that play an important role in evaporation and water level dynamics. Nonetheless, by the end of 2014, water levels on the Lake Michigan-Huron and Lake Superior systems had finished a 2 year record setting water level surge [Gronewold et al, 2015].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of extreme 2013–2014 winter conditions on Lake Michigan's fall heat content, surface temperature, and evaporation

Gronewold

Anderson

Lofgren

et al. 2015

Geophysical Research Letters

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Since the late 1990s, the Laurentian Great Lakes have experienced persistent low water levels and above average over‐lake evaporation rates. During the winter of 2013–2014, the lakes endured the most persistent, lowest temperatures and highest ice cover in recent history, fostering speculation that over‐lake evaporation rates might decrease and that water levels might rise. To address this speculation, we examined interseasonal relationships in Lake Michigan's thermal regime. We find pronounced relationships between winter conditions and subsequent fall heat content, modest relationships with fall surface temperature, but essentially no correlation with fall evaporation rates. Our findings suggest that the extreme winter conditions of 2013–2014 may have induced a shift in Lake Michigan's thermal regime and that this shift coincides with a recent (and ongoing) rise in Great Lakes water levels. If the shift persists, it could (assuming precipitation rates remain relatively constant) represent a return to thermal and hydrologic conditions not observed on Lake Michigan in over 15 years.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of extreme 2013–2014 winter conditions on Lake Michigan's fall heat content, surface temperature, and evaporation

Gronewold

Anderson

Lofgren

et al. 2015

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…As an enhancement of the additive WBM, we developed a prototype large lake sta-tistical water balance model (L2SWBM) [30], seeking an understanding of drivers in the 2013-2014 record-setting water level rise on Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron [31], the two largest lakes on Earth by surface area [33]. We leveraged state-of-the-art software for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation of Bayesian Networks to assimilate regional estimates of water balance components (see section 1.1), developing a first-of-its-kind model that incorporates measurement uncertainty, correlation, and bias [6,43,65,66], while closing the water balances of the lakes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and analysis of a Bayesian water balance model for large lake systems

Smith,

Gronewold

2017

Preprint

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Water balance models (WBMs) are often employed to understand regional hydrologic cycles over various time scales. Most WBMs, however, are physically-based, and few employ state-of-the-art statistical methods to reconcile independent input measurement uncertainty and bias. Further, few WBMs exist for large lakes, and most large lake WBMs perform additive accounting, with minimal consideration towards input data uncertainty. Here, we introduce a framework for improving a previously developed large lake statistical water balance model (L2SWBM). Focusing on the water balances of Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron, we demonstrate our new analytical framework, identifying L2SWBMs from 26 alternatives that adequately close the water balance of the lakes with satisfactory computation times compared with the prototype model. We expect our new framework will be used to develop water balance models for other lakes around the world.

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“…Between January 2013 and December 2014, water levels on Lake Superior and Lake Michigan‐Huron, the two largest lakes on Earth by surface area [ Gronewold et al ., ], rose by nearly two thirds of a meter and 1 m, respectively. This rise represents the largest positive water level differential on Lakes Superior and Michigan‐Huron over any historical 2 year period beginning in January and ending in December of the following year [ Gronewold et al ., ]. The recent rise is all‐the‐more significant because it directly impacts over 8000 mi (roughly 13,000 km) of U.S. and Canadian coastline (along the shores of both Lakes Superior and Michigan‐Huron), and because it surpasses by at least an order of magnitude the rate of interannual sea level rise along most of North America's marine coasts [ Ekman , ; Cooper et al ., ; Gronewold et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological drivers of record‐setting water level rise on Earth's largest lake system

Gronewold

Bruxer

Durnford³

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

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Between January 2013 and December 2014, water levels on Lake Superior and Lake MichiganHuron, the two largest lakes on Earth by surface area, rose at the highest rate ever recorded for a 2 year period beginning in January and ending in December of the following year. This historic event coincided with below-average air temperatures and extensive winter ice cover across the Great Lakes. It also brought an end to a 15 year period of persistently below-average water levels on Lakes Superior and MichiganHuron that included several months of record-low water levels. To differentiate hydrological drivers behind the recent water level rise, we developed a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) routine for inferring historical estimates of the major components of each lake's water budget. Our results indicate that, in 2013, the water level rise on Lake Superior was driven by increased spring runoff and over-lake precipitation. In 2014, reduced over-lake evaporation played a more significant role in Lake Superior's water level rise. The water level rise on Lake Michigan-Huron in 2013 was also due to above-average spring runoff and persistent over-lake precipitation, while in 2014, it was due to a rare combination of below-average evaporation, above-average runoff and precipitation, and very high inflow rates from Lake Superior through the St. Marys River. We expect, in future research, to apply our new framework across the other Laurentian Great Lakes, and to Earth's other large freshwater basins as well.

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Water Levels Surge on Great Lakes

Abstract: The recent 2-year surge represents one of the most rapid rates of water level change on the Great Lakes in recorded history and marks the end of an unprecedented period of low water levels.

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Impacts of extreme 2013–2014 winter conditions on Lake Michigan's fall heat content, surface temperature, and evaporation

Impacts of extreme 2013–2014 winter conditions on Lake Michigan's fall heat content, surface temperature, and evaporation

Development and analysis of a Bayesian water balance model for large lake systems

Hydrological drivers of record‐setting water level rise on Earth's largest lake system

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