Impacts of extreme 2013–2014 winter conditions on Lake Michigan's fall heat content, surface temperature, and evaporation

Gronewold, Andrew D.; Anderson, Eric J.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Blanken, Peter D.; Wang, Jia; Smith, Joeseph P.; Hunter, Timothy; Lang, Gregory A.; Stow, Craig A.; Beletsky, Dmitry; Bratton, John F.

doi:10.1002/2015gl063799

Cited by 30 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The highest annual cumulative evaporation was in 2014 in Lake Michigan (1162.1 mm) follow by Lake Huron (1103.9 mm). During the winter of 2013-2014, the Great Lakes experienced consistent lowest temperatures and highest ice cover in recent history [33]. Additionally, during this time Lake Superior had approximately 88% ice cover.…”

Section: Overlake Evaporationmentioning

confidence: 90%

The Estimation of the North American Great Lakes Turbulent Fluxes Using Satellite Remote Sensing and MERRA Reanalysis Data

Moukomla

Blanken

2017

Remote Sensing

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Abstract:This study provides the first technique to investigate the turbulent fluxes over the Great Lakes from July 2001 to December 2014 using a combination of data from satellite remote sensing, reanalysis data sets, and direct measurements. Turbulent fluxes including latent heat flux (Q E ) and sensible heat flux (Q H ) were estimated using the bulk aerodynamic approach, then compared with the direct eddy covariance measurements from the rooftop of three lighthouses-Stannard Rock Lighthouse (SR) in Lake Superior, White Shoal Lighthouse (WS) in Lake Michigan, and Spectacle Reef Lighthouse (SP) in Lake Huron. The relationship between modeled and measured Q E and Q H were in a good statistical agreement, for Q E , R 2 varied from 0.41 (WS), 0.74 (SR), and 0.87 (SP) with RMSE of 5.68, 6.93, and 4.67 W·m −2 , respectively, while Q H , R 2 ranged from 0.002 (WS), 0.8030 (SP) and 0.94 (SR) with RMSE of 6.97, 4.39 and 4.90 W·m −2 respectively. Both monthly mean Q E and Q H were highest in January for all lakes except Lake Ontario, which was highest in early December. The turbulent fluxes then sharply drop in March and are negligible during June and July. The evaporation processes continue again in August.

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Section: Overlake Evaporationmentioning

confidence: 90%

The Estimation of the North American Great Lakes Turbulent Fluxes Using Satellite Remote Sensing and MERRA Reanalysis Data

Moukomla

Blanken

2017

Remote Sensing

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“…The Great Lakes' rapid warming may be viewed as an abrupt LST increase from 1997 to 1998 in response to the strong 1997–1998 El Niño episode (Assel ; Clites et al ), followed by a sustained elevation of the LSTs (Gronewold et al ), or alternatively, in response to the shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) toward its negative phase (Van Cleave et al ). The abrupt change from 1997 to 1998 (Fig.…”

Section: Decadal Regime Shift and Abrupt 1997/1998 Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Recent accelerated warming of the Laurentian Great Lakes: Physical drivers

et al. 2016

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The primary drivers of the recent accelerated warming of the Laurentian Great Lakes from 1982 to 2012 are explored through observations, remote sensing, and regional climate model experiments. The study focuses on the abrupt warming from 1997 to 1998 as a proxy for the long‐term warming trend. The lake surface warming has been heterogeneous in both space and time, ranging from moderate warming in late spring over the southern lakes and shallow areas of the northern lakes to strong warming in mid‐summer over the northern, deep lake areas. The greatest lake warming between 1997 and 1998 occurs over the deepest areas of Lake Superior during mid‐summer, primarily arising from enhanced heat accumulation during the mild winter of 1997/1998 and amplified by greater incoming surface solar radiation and air temperature during the spring of 1998, according to model experiments. The mild winter condition, together with the increased solar radiation and air temperature during spring, causes an earlier onset of springtime stratification, resulting in enhanced heat absorption by surface water and thereby contributing to lake surface warming during the subsequent summer in 1998 compared with 1997. In contrast, the modest peak warming over southern lakes and shallow areas of northern lakes from 1997 to 1998 is a rapid response to synchronous increases in solar radiation and air temperature during May between the 2 yr. Changes in antecedent wintertime lake ice cover are found to have played only a minor role in the accelerated warming trend of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

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“…A substantial body of work has sought to identify anomalies in the water balance components-overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, and runoff-that contribute to interannual fluctuation in lake levels, as well as the circulation anomalies driving these fluctuations (Assel, 1998;Assel et al, 2004;Biron et al, 2014;Ghanbari & Bravo, 2008;Gronewold et al, 2016;Hanrahan et al, 2010Hanrahan et al, , 2014Polderman & Pryor, 2004;Van Cleave et al, 2014). The polar jet stream, which is influenced by a variety of larger-scale teleconnections in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, has been identified as a dominant forcing of wintertime climatic variability in the Great Lakes region (Assel, 1998;Assel & Rodionov, 1998;Bai et al, 2012Bai et al, , 2015Gronewold et al, 2015;Rodionov, 1997;Rodionov & Assel, 2000Rodionov et al, 2001). If the jet stream is north of its climatological position, southerly flow can bring warm air into the region, leading to increased air and water temperatures and evaporation and reduced ice cover across the Great Lakes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroclimatological Drivers of Extreme Floods on Lake Ontario

Carter

2018

Water Resources Research

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This study examines the hydrologic and climatic conditions that precede major flood events on Lake Ontario, with the purpose of understanding the potential for seasonal forecasts to inform lake level management. Seven late spring/early summer flood events are identified since 1949, including the record‐breaking flood of 2017. The surface climate, atmospheric circulation, and antecedent lake levels for the preceding winter and spring seasons are examined. Results suggest that flood events are caused by different combinations of high, initial wintertime water levels across all of the Great Lakes, anomalously wet winters across the entire Great Lakes basin, and wet spring conditions, particularly in the eastern part of the basin. Wet winters that precede flood events are often associated with La Niña conditions, while wet springs are often associated with a westward shift of the North Atlantic Subtropical High. As the critical drawdown period for Lake Ontario occurs in the fall, before the onset of anomalous winter or spring/summer inputs, a generalized additive model was used to predict April–August maximum monthly average Lake Ontario water levels using November levels for all Great Lakes, a nonlinear response to the wintertime Niño 3.4 index, and scenarios of April–May overbasin precipitation. The Niño 3.4 index significantly improves lake level predictions, suggesting that an El Niño‐Southern Oscillation signal may be useful for lake level management. Future work needed to verify the use of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation for Lake Ontario flood forecasting and to link the North Atlantic Subtropical High to predictions of springtime Great Lakes climate is discussed.

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Impacts of extreme 2013–2014 winter conditions on Lake Michigan's fall heat content, surface temperature, and evaporation

Cited by 30 publications

References 38 publications

The Estimation of the North American Great Lakes Turbulent Fluxes Using Satellite Remote Sensing and MERRA Reanalysis Data

The Estimation of the North American Great Lakes Turbulent Fluxes Using Satellite Remote Sensing and MERRA Reanalysis Data

Recent accelerated warming of the Laurentian Great Lakes: Physical drivers

Hydroclimatological Drivers of Extreme Floods on Lake Ontario

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