Water Level Declines in the High Plains Aquifer: Predevelopment to Resource Senescence

Abstract

A large imbalance between recharge and water withdrawal has caused vital regions of the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) to experience significant declines in storage. A new predevelopment map coupled with a synthesis of annual water levels demonstrates that aquifer storage has declined by approximately 410 km(3) since the 1930s, a 15% larger decline than previous estimates. If current rates of decline continue, much of the Southern High Plains and parts of the Central High Plains will have insufficient water for irrigation within the next 20 to 30 years, whereas most of the Northern High Plains will experience little change in storage. In the western parts of the Central and northern part of the Southern High Plains, saturated thickness has locally declined by more than 50%, and is currently declining at rates of 10% to 20% of initial thickness per decade. The most agriculturally productive portions of the High Plains will not support irrigated production within a matter of decades without significant changes in management.

Complex water management in modern agriculture: Trends in the water-energy-food nexus over the High Plains Aquifer

“…Irrigated agriculture across the High Plains accounts for 30% of all irrigated acreage in the U.S. (Dennehy et al, 2002), and 97% of High Plains irrigation water is extracted from the High Plains Aquifer (HPA; Maupin and Barber, 2005). Due to extensive irrigation, groundwater levels across large sections of the HPA have been declining for decades, particularly in the southern section where the aquifer is thin and irrigation demand is high (Haacker et al, 2015;McGuire, 2009;Scanlon et al, 2012). Future decades are forecast to bring more widespread groundwater declines, effectively depleting broad regions of the HPA if current practices continue (Haacker et al, 2015).…”

“…Due to extensive irrigation, groundwater levels across large sections of the HPA have been declining for decades, particularly in the southern section where the aquifer is thin and irrigation demand is high (Haacker et al, 2015;McGuire, 2009;Scanlon et al, 2012). Future decades are forecast to bring more widespread groundwater declines, effectively depleting broad regions of the HPA if current practices continue (Haacker et al, 2015). Major reductions in water availability would result in enormous consequences for food and energy production.…”

Measuring the value of groundwater and other forms of natural capital

“…We parameterize the case study for the period 1996-2005 (see Supporting Information) using a 10-y data series from the Kansas Water Information Management and Analysis System, the United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, and the Kansas State University Agricultural Extension, in conjunction with an annual time series of saturated thickness (32).…”

“…Indeed, the lack of values for water is lamented in the 2014 Inclusive Wealth Report (IWR) (2). Previous attempts have inventoried groundwater stocks, providing physical measurements of quantities without values (27,32), or have valued the flows of ecosystem services associated with water use (30,33,34), which provides a poor approximation to the wealth contained in water. To value the groundwater capital stock, we focus on the regions of the aquifer associated with crop agriculture, which received 99% of the groundwater pumped (35) in western Kansas over a period of a major technological change, 1996-2005.…”

Cotton Water Use Efficiency under Two Different Deficit Irrigation Scheduling Methods

“…Depletion of ground water resources for irrigation, as is the case with the Ogallala aquifer on the US Southern High Plains [2], places a premium on irrigation scheduling methods that improve crop water use efficiency (WUE). Hatfield et al [3] surveyed the literature and found large variations in measured WUE across climates, crops and soil management practices.…”