Water, energy and agricultural landuse trends at Shiroro hydropower station and environs

Abstract

Abstract. The study examines the interplay among water resources, hydropower generation and agricultural landuse at the Shiroro hydropower station and its environs, in north-central Nigeria. Non-parametric trend analysis, hydropower footprint estimation, reservoir performance analysis, change detection analysis, and inferential statistics were combined to study the water-energy and food security nexus. Results of Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator for the period 1960 to 2013 showed a declining rainfall trend at Jos, around River Kaduna headwaters at −2.6 mm yr −1 , while rainfall at Kaduna and Minna upstream and downstream of the reservoir respectively showed no trend. Estimates of hydropower footprint varied between 130.4 and 704.1 m 3 GJ −1 between 1995 and 2013. Power generation reliability and resilience of the reservoir was 31.6 and 38.5 % respectively with year 2011 being the most vulnerable and least satisfactory. In addition to poor reliability and resilience indices, other challenges militating against good performance of hydropower generation includes population growth and climate change issues as exemplified in the downward trend observed at the headwaters. Water inflow and power generation shows a weak positive relationship with correlation coefficient (r) of 0.48, indicating less than optimal power generation. Total area of land cultivated increased from 884.59 km 2 in 1986 prior to the commissioning of the hydropower station to 1730.83 km 2 in 2016 which signifies an increased contribution of the dam to ensuring food security. The reality of reducing upstream rainfall amount coupled with high water footprint of electricity from the reservoir, therefore requires that a long term roadmap to improve operational coordination and management have to be put in place.

Resilience Meets the Water–Energy–Food Nexus: Mapping the Research Landscape

“…In terms of the source and phase of disturbances against which to build, manage, understand, measure or model resilience, most studies that specify the disturbance (74%) identify it as external (42%). Typically listed external shocks are climate change (and related disturbances such as altering rainfall patterns, weather volatility and droughts, see e.g., Adegun et al, 2018); resource supply limitations including water, nutrients and land (e.g., Keairns et al, 2016); and migration (e.g., Lambert et al. 2017).…”