Was the Extreme Storm Season in Winter 2013/14 Over the North Atlantic and the United Kingdom Triggered by Changes in the West Pacific Warm Pool?

Wild, S. B.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.

doi:10.1175/bams-eee_2014_ch7.1

Cited by 5 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 6 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Additionally to the previously studied drivers, we were able to identify the temperature gradient between the North American continent and the West Atlantic (Wild et al, 2015) and the Northern Hemispheric sea ice extent as locally important drivers (Iberian Peninsula and Mediterranean). Sea ice cover as a teleconnection with the Mediterranean is generally in line with results from Semmler et al (2016) who found a reduced number of cyclones in the eastern part of the Mediterranean and over the Black Sea in their sensitivity study with reduced sea ice.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Across all regions the SCA, the EA and the stationbased NAO index appear as the main drivers of serial clustering of windstorms as well as for the drivers of AS and IAS. The temperature gradient between the North American continent and the western Atlantic SSTs (introduced by Wild et al, 2015) also proves to be of importance related to windstorm clustering especially for the British Isles, central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. This is in accordance with their findings of a statistically significant correlation between this temperature gradient and windstorm counts over the Iberian Peninsula (Wild et al, 2015).…”

Section: Identified Large-scale Drivers For Serial Clustering For Smentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The temperature gradient between the North American continent and the western Atlantic SSTs (introduced by Wild et al, 2015) also proves to be of importance related to windstorm clustering especially for the British Isles, central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. This is in accordance with their findings of a statistically significant correlation between this temperature gradient and windstorm counts over the Iberian Peninsula (Wild et al, 2015). The selection of the QBO in 30 hPa for central Europe suggests a troposphere-stratosphere coupling that has an impact on the windstorm frequency for certain parts of Europe.…”

Section: Identified Large-scale Drivers For Serial Clustering For Smentioning

confidence: 98%

“…These findings could be supported by Renggli (2011), who showed that a horseshoe pattern in autumn is linked to windstorm frequency in the subsequent winter. One of the factors identified for the extreme storm season of the winter 2013/2014 by Wild, Befort, and Leckebusch (2015) is the meridional temperature gradient between the North American continent and the SSTs in the West Atlantic. According to their study, there is a significant correlation between this temperature gradient and windstorm occurrences over the eastern Atlantic, the Iberian Peninsula and the southwest of the British Isles.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers

Walz

Befort

Kirchner-Bossi

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Winter windstorms are known to be among the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards in Europe. In order to gain a better understanding of their variability and driving mechanisms, this study analyses the temporal variability which is often referred to as serial or seasonal clustering. This is realized by developing a statistical model relating the winter storm counts to known teleconnection patterns affecting European weather and climate conditions (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Scandinavian pattern [SCA], etc.). The statistical model is developed via a stepwise Poisson regression approach that is applied to windstorm counts and large-scale indices retrieved from the ERA-20C reanalysis. Significant largescale drivers accountable for the inter-annual variability of storms for several European regions are identified and compared. In addition to the SCA and the NAO which are found to be the essential drivers for most areas within the European domain, other teleconnections (e.g., East Atlantic pattern) are found to be more significant for the inter-annual variability in certain regions. Furthermore, the statistical model allows an estimation of the expected number of storms per winter season and also whether a season has the characteristic of being what we define an active or inactive season. The statistical model reveals high skill particularly over British Isles and central Europe; however, even for regions with less frequent storm events (e.g., southern and eastern Europe) the model shows adequate positive skill. This feature could be of specific interest for the actuarial sector.

show abstract

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Identified Large-scale Drivers For Serial Clustering For Smentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Identified Large-scale Drivers For Serial Clustering For Smentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers

Walz

Befort

Kirchner-Bossi

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…One example of a particularly stormy winter was 2013/2014 over the UK (cf. Kendon and McCarthy, 2015), which was classed as the most active season regarding windstorm frequency for at least the last 35 years (Wild et al, 2015) and the most active season regarding cyclone frequency for over a century in the UK (Matthews et al, 2014). For the Southern Hemisphere land extent is less in the latitudes of interest, meaning less direct impacts on losses, though severe windstorms are generally an even more pronounced feature over the ocean here than in the Northern Hemisphere (hence the terms 'roaring forties' and 'furious fifties').…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Different long‐term trends of extra‐tropical cyclones and windstorms in ERA‐20C and NOAA‐20CR reanalyses

Befort

Wild

Kruschke

et al. 2016

Atmospheric Science Letters

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

NOAA 20th century and ERA-20C reanalysis datasets are evaluated regarding the representation of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms over the Northern and Southern Hemisphere during the respective 6-month winter seasons. The results indicate substantial differences in low-frequency variability between the two datasets -especially in the first half of the 20th century -expressed in different signs and/or magnitudes of long-term trends. This is hampering a reliable analysis of real long-term trends of cyclone and windstorm activity. However, higher-frequency variability is in good agreement between both datasets especially for the Northern Hemisphere.

show abstract

On cold spells in North America and storminess in western Europe

Messori

Caballero

Gaetani

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We discuss the dynamical and statistical links between cold extremes over eastern North America and storminess over western Europe, with a focus on the midlatitude jet stream, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA). The analysis is performed on the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts 20th Century Reanalysis. The large‐scale circulation associated with the cold spells corresponds to advection of cold air from the Arctic region into North America and to a very zonal and intense North Atlantic jet, shifted persistently south of its climatological location. These features of the Atlantic jet are conducive to destructive windstorms and intense precipitation over a large part of southern and continental Europe and the British Isles. The cold spells are preceded by a negative NAO and followed by a positive PNA; however, we interpret the associated circulation anomalies as being distinct from these standard modes of climate variability.

show abstract

Was the Extreme Storm Season in Winter 2013/14 Over the North Atlantic and the United Kingdom Triggered by Changes in the West Pacific Warm Pool?

Cited by 5 publications

References 6 publications

Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers

Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers

Different long‐term trends of extra‐tropical cyclones and windstorms in ERA‐20C and NOAA‐20CR reanalyses

On cold spells in North America and storminess in western Europe

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About