Abstract. This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical ( -2014, and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunderminimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical onePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m −2 . The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m −2 . In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day −1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day −1 at the stratopause), temperatures (∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models wi...
together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper 31 summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern 32 strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use. 33Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by 34 alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in 35 hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean 36European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial 37Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly 38 enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also 39 displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid 40 modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. 41MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system 42 to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the 43 prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable 44 by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research 45 questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the 46 appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-47 field and anomaly initialization. 48
NOAA 20th century and ERA-20C reanalysis datasets are evaluated regarding the representation of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms over the Northern and Southern Hemisphere during the respective 6-month winter seasons. The results indicate substantial differences in low-frequency variability between the two datasets -especially in the first half of the 20th century -expressed in different signs and/or magnitudes of long-term trends. This is hampering a reliable analysis of real long-term trends of cyclone and windstorm activity. However, higher-frequency variability is in good agreement between both datasets especially for the Northern Hemisphere.
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