Wartime Paris, cirrhosis mortality, and the ceteris paribus assumption.

Fillmore, Kaye Middleton; Roizen, Ron; Farrell, Michael; Kerr, William C.; Lemmens, Paul

doi:10.15288/jsa.2002.63.436

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Intervention studies show that a reduction of alcohol consumption via policy interventions resulted in a marked reduction of liver cirrhosis (for example in Russia [ 77 , 78 ]). Although liver cirrhosis is a chronic disease, interventions have immediate effects, as not only shown by the Russian experiences cited above, but also for instance by the impact of the German seizures of alcohol on French mortality rates during World War II, or the impact of prohibition in the US [ 75 , 79 , 80 ]). It may take up to 20 years, however, before all of the effects of interventions can be seen [ 81 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remembering the forgotten non-communicable diseases

López

Williams

Levin

et al. 2014

BMC Med

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The forthcoming post-Millennium Development Goals era will bring about new challenges in global health. Low- and middle-income countries will have to contend with a dual burden of infectious and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Some of these NCDs, such as neoplasms, COPD, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, cause much health loss worldwide and are already widely recognised as doing so. However, 55% of the global NCD burden arises from other NCDs, which tend to be ignored in terms of premature mortality and quality of life reduction. Here, experts in some of these ‘forgotten NCDs’ review the clinical impact of these diseases along with the consequences of their ignoring their medical importance, and discuss ways in which they can be given higher global health priority in order to decrease the growing burden of disease and disability.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remembering the forgotten non-communicable diseases

López

Williams

Levin

et al. 2014

BMC Med

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“…Several explanations for this observation have been proposed. One is that the underlying relationship between cirrhosis mortality rates and alcohol consumption has remained, but that in at least some instances other factors have been influencing cirrhosis mortality rates (Smart & Mann 1998; Fillmore et al . 2002; Mann et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cirrhosis mortality in Ontario: effects of alcohol consumption and Alcoholics Anonymous participation

et al. 2005

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“…On the individual level, the toxic effects of alcohol on the liver may take many years to accumulate, often resulting in a lagged effect of consumption on mortality rates 7 . However, if alcohol use is markedly reduced, in addition to the lagged effects there are immediate effects on mortality at a population level, as several natural experiments have shown, such as the Gorbachev‐era reforms of drastically reducing alcohol sales in the Soviet Union, 8 the invasion of Paris by the Germans, 9 and the introduction of prohibition 10 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can alcohol control policies reduce cirrhosis mortality? An interrupted time‐series analysis in Lithuania

Tran

Jiang

Lange

et al. 2022

Liver International

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Background and Aims The relationship between alcohol consumption and cirrhosis is well established. Policies that can influence population‐level use of alcohol should, in turn, impact cirrhosis. We examined the effect of population‐level alcohol control policies on cirrhosis mortality rates in Lithuania – a high‐income European Union country with high levels of alcohol consumption. Methods Age‐standardized, monthly liver mortality data (deaths per 100,000 adults, aged 15+) from Lithuania were analysed from 2001 to 2018 (n = 216 months) while controlling for economic confounders (gross domestic product and inflation). An interrupted time‐series analysis was conducted to estimate the effect of three alcohol control policies implemented in 2008, 2017 and 2018 and the number of cirrhosis deaths averted. Results There was a significant effect of the 2008 (P < .0001) and 2017 (P = .0003) alcohol control policies but a null effect of the 2018 policy (P = .40). Following the 2008 policy, the cirrhosis mortality rate dropped from 4.93 to 3.41 (95% CI: 3.02‐3.80) deaths per 100,000 adults, which equated to 493 deaths averted. Further, we found that following the 2017 policy, the mortality rate dropped from 2.85 to 2.01 (95% CI: 1.50‐2.52) deaths per 100,000 adults, corresponding to 245 deaths averted. Conclusions Our findings support the hypothesis that alcohol control policies can have a significant, immediate effect on cirrhosis mortality. These policy measures are cost‐effective and aid in reducing the burden of liver disease.

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Wartime Paris, cirrhosis mortality, and the ceteris paribus assumption.

Cited by 11 publications

References 0 publications

Remembering the forgotten non-communicable diseases

Remembering the forgotten non-communicable diseases

Cirrhosis mortality in Ontario: effects of alcohol consumption and Alcoholics Anonymous participation

Can alcohol control policies reduce cirrhosis mortality? An interrupted time‐series analysis in Lithuania

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