War in Ukraine: challenges for the global economy

Abstract

Introduction. As the attack on Ukraine intensified, the United States and other Western countries imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia and declared their support for Ukraine. Problem. Consideringthe far-reaching impact of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine on international development in the long run, it is extremely important for the international community to implement compre­hensive solutions focused on development priorities. The aim of the article is to study the impact of the war in Ukraine on inflation risks and challenges for the world economy. Methods. The information base of the study was the study of official information and periodicals. Methodological basis of the research: analysis, synthesis, systems approach, statistical methods and abstract-logical methods. Results. The new sanctions regime and the cost of the war are likely to push the Russian economy into a recession worse than the 1998 recession and the Russian financial crisis, accompanied by significant increases in inflation and the cost of living of Russian households. According to our preliminary estimates, Russia’s real GDP will fall by 4–9 % in 2022, while growth will range from –1 % to 2.5 % in 2023. Inflation may rise to 11–17 % in 2022, fall to 6–12.03 % in 2022. A key factor in these projections is that Russia’s oil and gas exports, especially to Europe, are largely continuing, but this may change if sanctions are tightened. In 2021, Russia’s exports of mineral fuels, oils and distillation products amounted to 199 USDbillion. USA, which accounts for 40.5 % of Russia’s total exports and 11.4 % of its GDP. Depending on the duration of sanctions and the possibility of their strengthening, the world economy may be significantly affected during 2022–2023. Conclusions. It is expected that the war in Ukraine will have a significant impact on the economy and consumers in terms of such actions: expanding the supply chain, increasing inflationary pressures, deteriorating economic prospects.

Проблеми Розвитку Економічної Безпеки В Україні: Виклики Та Можливості

“…An important element for stable development is heavy industry; after the heavy destruction of Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Mariupol, and other powerful production centers, the loss of control over the cities of Donbas is in crisis (Nezhyva & Mysiuk, 2022). During 2015-2021, a certain tendency was formed in the economic entities of the machine-building complex, which was the orientation on the use of imported equipment, significant dependence on imported technologies, and the corresponding projected foreign policy situation in the world (Ptaskhsenko et al, 2019).…”

“…Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war (2014), modern scholars have begun to substantiate the impact of first a regional and later a large-scale war on the Ukrainian and world economies respectively. Nezhyva & Mysiuk (2022) characterized the role of the Russo-Ukrainian war for the transformation of the world economy. The authors analyzed in detail the impact of international sanctions on the Russian economy; they believe that military spending will push the Russian economy into a state of recession, which will be accompanied by large increases in inflation and the cost of living in Russia.…”

“…The authors analyzed in detail the impact of international sanctions on the Russian economy; they believe that military spending will push the Russian economy into a state of recession, which will be accompanied by large increases in inflation and the cost of living in Russia. Nezhyva & Mysiuk (2022) estimate that the Russian federation's GDP will shrink by 4-9% in 2022 alone. Meanwhile, Purii (2022) examined the role of Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a trigger for a major transition to a new social order.…”

Impact of Petroleum Energy Price Volatility on Commodity Prices in Ghana

“…It also significantly narrows the fiscal space and further erodes the current account balances of the government of Ghana in the long-term. There is an anticipated high cost of trade and inflation in the long-run if the standoff between Russia and Ukraine persist (Nezhyva and Mysiuk, 2022).…”

Стратегічні Орієнтири Розвитку Економіки В Умовах Глобальних Викликів Та Воєнної Агресії (Український Кейс)

“…Ukrainian researchers since the beginning of the russian-Ukrainian war began to actively study the peculiarities of the transformation of economic life in Ukraine, the basic principles of national security. In particular, Nezhyva & Mysiuk (2022) investigated the impact of the russian-Ukrainian war on the emergence of major changes in the concept of the world economy. Separately, they characterized the role and significance of international sanctions on the russian economy.…”