Vulnerability of water resources under a changing climate and human activity in the lower Great Lakes region

Abstract

Globally, the number of people experiencing water stress is expected to increase by millions by the end of the century. The Great Lakes region, representing 20% of the world's surface freshwater, is not immune to stresses on water supply due to uncertainties on the impacts of climate and land use change. It is imperative for researchers and policy makers to assess the changing state of water resources, even if the region is water rich. This research developed the integrated surface water-groundwater GSFLOW model and investigated the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resources in the lower Great Lakes region of Western New York.To capture a range of scenarios, two climate emission pathways and three land development projections were used, specifically RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, increased urbanization by 50%, decreased urbanization by 50%, and current land cover, respectively. Model outputs of surface water and groundwater discharge into the Great Lakes and groundwater storage for mid-and late century were compared to historical to determine the direction and amplitude of changes. Both surface water and groundwater systems show no statistically significant changes under RCP 4.5 but substantial and worrisome losses with RCP 8.5 by mid-century and end of century. Under RCP 8.5, streamflow decreased by 22% for mid-century and 42% for late century. Adjusting impervious surfaces revealed complex land use effects, resulting in spatially varying groundwater head fluctuations. For instance, increasing impervious surfaces lowered groundwater levels from 0.5 to 3.8 m under Buffalo, the largest city in the model domain, due to reduced recharge in surrounding suburban areas. Ultimately, results of this study highlight the necessity of integrated modelling in assessing temporal changes to water resources. This research has implications for other water-rich areas, which may not be immune to effects of climate change and human activities. K E Y W O R D S climate change, Great Lakes region, western new york, groundwater storage, GSFLOW, integrated hydrological modelling, land use, surface water-groundwater model, water resources 1 | INTRODUCTION Water scarcity is a progressively prevalent and global issue that will be exacerbated by future climate change and human activities. Gosling and Arnell (2013) anticipated an increase of 0.5-4.7 billion people to experience water scarcity based on climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. Superimposed on a changing climate, human activities through land use and land cover change can worsen water

The impact of natural vegetation restoration on surface soil moisture of secondary forests and shrubs in the karst region of southwest China

“…Many studies had shown that climate change, vegetation types, soil properties and human activities can all affect changes in soil moisture (Yan et al, 2021; Yan et al, 2022; Zhu & Lin, 2011). From a large‐scale and long‐term perspective, climate change and vegetation restoration were the two most important factors leading to changes in soil moisture (Soonthornrangan & Lowry, 2021; Yang et al, 2022). However, through long‐term positioning observations, this study found that changes in soil moisture in SF and SH in karst areas are very significantly correlated with rainfall, and the correlation between changes in soil moisture in 10–20 cm is higher than that in 0–10 cm (Table 3).…”

“…What's more, vegetation can affect soil moisture and response to precipitation through many complex and interactive hydrological processes (Canton et al, 2016; Chen et al, 2007; Rivera et al, 2014). However, from a long‐term perspective, climate factors and vegetation restoration are two important factors leading to changes in soil moisture (Soonthornrangan & Lowry, 2021; Yang et al, 2022).…”

“…What's more, vegetation can affect soil moisture and response to precipitation through many complex and interactive hydrological processes (Canton et al, 2016;Chen et al, 2007;Rivera et al, 2014). However, from a long-term perspective, climate factors and vegetation restoration are two important factors leading to changes in soil moisture (Soonthornrangan & Lowry, 2021;Yang et al, 2022). Some studies in semi-arid and semi-humid areas have shown that vegetation restoration leads to a decrease in soil moisture (Cao et al, 2018;Liang et al, 2018;Liu et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2020).…”

Impacts of urban decline on local climatology: A comparison of growing and shrinking cities in the post-industrial Rust Belt

“…How quickly and to what extent climate will be altered for cities and their surrounding areas remains of critical importance for decision makers. This is especially true for Great Lakes Region, where much of the Rust Belt cities are located, due to its role in harboring a major fraction of the world's freshwater resources (Soonthornrangsan and Lowry, 2021). Climate change projections with enough detail at the local and regional scales are needed to identify vulnerabilities in these areas so that appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies can be implemented (Byun and Hamlet, 2018;Byun et al, 2019).…”

Integrated water quality dynamics in Wadi Hanifah: Physical, chemical, and biological perspectives

“…Nevertheless, an integrated approach is advocated for arid environments such as Wadi Hanifah, where the scarcity of water intensifies pollution effects [ 8 , 23 ] . Recent studies underscore the growing pressures on water resources in such areas due to climate change and anthropogenic activities [ 24 , 25 ] , underscoring the urgency for thorough water quality assessments.…”