Vulnerability of industrial facilities to attacks with improvised explosive devices aimed at triggering domino scenarios

Landucci, Gabriele; Reniers, Genserik; Cozzani, Valerio; Salzano, Ernesto

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2015.03.004

Cited by 66 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…TATP is a very volatile and unstable explosive and is easily detonated accidently. Landucci et al (2015) estimates that TATP has an NEQ of 0.5–0.6 if manufactured in a controlled laboratory environment. Hargather and Settles (2007) found from experimental testing that the NEQ for TATP is 0.1–0.45, and is a function of distance from the charge.…”

Section: Illustrative Example: Person-borne Improvised Explosive Devimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If TATP is stabilised with carbonaceous liquids and waxes its NEQ is even lower. The NEQ of TATP is also highly dependent on the quality of the final product, and is very sensitive to the temperature during its synthesis (Landucci et al, 2015). Even when made under ideal conditions the NEQ of TATP is highly variable.…”

Section: Illustrative Example: Person-borne Improvised Explosive Devimentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observed airblast variability and model error from repeatable explosive field trials

Stewart

Netherton

Baldacchino³

2019

International Journal of Protective Structures

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Explosive field trials have been conducted to measure the peak incident pressure, impulse and time of positive phase duration following the detonation of 15 different masses of the Plastic Explosive No #4. A novel aspect of these field trials was the repeatability of tests. Eight pressure gauges collected data during each blast, and at each scaled distance. In all, 4 blasts were conducted for each scaled distance (i.e. up to 32 measurements recorded for each scaled distance) – 60 blasts were fired in total. Consequently, this repeatability of testing allowed the mean and variance of blast pressure–time histories to be quantified, with a view to better characterise the variability of a blast itself and model error variability. This article describes the explosive field trials, and the statistical analysis of blast load variability and model error for peak incident pressure, impulse and time of positive phase duration. It was found that the mean model error is close to unity with a coefficient of variation of up to 0.15 for pressure and 0.21 for impulse. The lognormal probability distribution best fits the model error data. The probabilistic models derived from these tests can be used for a variety of structural engineering applications, such as calculating reliability-based design load or partial safety factors for explosive blast loading, and estimating the probability of damage and casualties for infrastructure subject to explosive blast loading. This is illustrated for a terrorist explosive scenario involving a spherical free-air burst, where the damage modes of interest are breaching and spalling of a concrete slab. It was found that the variability of charge mass, range and model error have a significant effect on reliability-based design.

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Section: Illustrative Example: Person-borne Improvised Explosive Devimentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Illustrative Example: Person-borne Improvised Explosive Devimentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed airblast variability and model error from repeatable explosive field trials

Stewart

Netherton

Baldacchino³

2019

International Journal of Protective Structures

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“…It can be applied as an oxygen component in the explosive composition. Landucci et al indicated that ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO), based on the fertilizer grade of AN (AN-F), was less efficient and was characterized by a lower void fraction in comparison to the ammonium nitrate porous prill (AN-PP) counterpart [3]. Moreover, due to the European regulation [4], AN-F requires modification to be introduced to the market.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, due to the European regulation [4], AN-F requires modification to be introduced to the market. However, despite this fact, it is this type of AN [3] that is usually used as the oxygen component in home-made explosives.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Influence of the Ammonium Nitrate(V) Provenance on Its Usefulness for the Manufacture of ANFO Type Explosives

et al. 2020

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Ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO) samples based on fertilizer (AN-F) and ammonium nitrate porous prill (AN-PP) were studied. Tests were carried out using both a thermogravimetric analyzer and differential scanning calorimetry (TGA/DSC). Furthermore, the scanning electron microscopy analysis (SEM) of ammonium nitrate(V) (AN) concerning either their surface or cross-section was performed. Based on the SEM results, it was shown that the surface of AN-F grains was flat and slightly deformed, while the AN-PP surface was wrinkled and deformed. Furthermore, the various steps of thermogravimetric process exhibited continuous AN phase transition according to precise temperatures. From TGA analysis, a significant mass loss was found as a result of ANFO decomposition. Direct comparison of SEM and TGA/DCS data led to the conclusion that ANFO based on AN-F was characterized by lower absorption of FO in contrast to AN-PP.

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“…Despite recent concerns about weapons of mass destruction (WMD), explosions are by far the most common cause of mass-casualty incidents associated with terrorism [4]. A successful attack aimed at direct or indirect damage of target equipment by bombs or fire arms can trigger domino scenarios [5] and cause damages to multiple process units or eventually several neighbouring industrial site [6,7]. The terrorist attacks to Iraq's oil terminal in 2004 and largest refinery in 2015 are examples of terrorist attacks by improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to chemical plants [8,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An emergency response decision matrix against terrorist attacks with improvised device in chemical clusters

Hosseinnia¹,

Khakzad²,

Reniers³

2018

Int. J. SAFE

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Chemical industrial areas may constitute potential targets for deliberate actions by terrorists. Terrorists having sufficient knowledge of chemical process operations or plant layout may take advantage of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to cause major events such as fire, explosion and toxic gas dispersion with cross-border consequences in chemical clusters. Thus, an efficient cluster-wise emergency plan to enhance the promptness and efficacy of responding to such attacks is crucial. In this study, the effects of blast wave caused by IEDs are assessed and its potentiality in triggering domino scenarios are analysed. A decision tree is developed to determine the emergency level of each company within the cluster based on the attack outcomes. Furthermore, an alert notification system is set based on a decision matrix. Finally, the identified emergency levels and the alert levels are presented in form of a multi-plant decision matrix. The application of the developed methodology is demonstrated in a case study.

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Vulnerability of industrial facilities to attacks with improvised explosive devices aimed at triggering domino scenarios

Cited by 66 publications

References 41 publications

Observed airblast variability and model error from repeatable explosive field trials

Observed airblast variability and model error from repeatable explosive field trials

On the Influence of the Ammonium Nitrate(V) Provenance on Its Usefulness for the Manufacture of ANFO Type Explosives

An emergency response decision matrix against terrorist attacks with improvised device in chemical clusters

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