Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change

Abstract

A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes.

Future scenarios and conservation strategies for a rear-edge marginal population of Pinus nigra Arnold in Italian central Apennines

“…A good prediction of the most likely effects of movement of climatic belts is fundamental to balance future forest management and seed transfers among different ecological regions (Benito-Garzón & Fernández-Manjarrés 2015). Small and isolated populations with low gene flow and low genetic variability could disappear, with a loss of adaptive richness (Schueler et al, 2014) threatened by the speed in the changing environment (Mátýas et al, 2009).…”

Root architecture might account for contrasting establishment success of Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii and Pinus sylvestris in Central Europe under dry conditions

“…The expansion of Pseudotsuga menziesii in Central European forests is, however, increasingly criticised by nature conservationists, who fear negative effects of nonnative species on biodiversity and forest functioning (Schmid et al 2014). Taking such concerns into account, the question of how well exotic tree species will be adapted to future climatic conditions and might be able to outcompete native species gains importance (Schüler et al 2014).…”

Conservation and Monitoring of Tree Genetic Resources in Temperate Forests

“…Conservation genomics has the goals of evaluating functional genomic variation in relation to drift and inbreeding and studying the mechanisms that relate low genetic variation to low fitness [39]. Conservation genomic studies in trees are still scarce, in spite of a universal acceptance of their value and potential [3, 12••, 27, 38-41] and despite reports indicating the vulnerability of in situ forest conservation due to climatic change [42]. Conservation genomics can potentially overcome the inherent limitations of common garden experiments by complementing provenance results with landscape genomic analysis and improve the estimation of adaptive genetic potential [43].…”

“…[11•, 54]). After evaluating the current status of the EUFORGEN conservation network, Schueler et al [42] emphasized that there is a pressing need to intensify monitoring efforts and identify the most vulnerable gene conservation units. Evaluation schemes based on criteria, indicators and verifiers have been proposed.…”