Future scenarios and conservation strategies for a rear-edge marginal population of Pinus nigra Arnold in Italian central Apennines

Marchi, Maurizio; Nocentini, Susanna; Ducci, Fulvio

doi:10.5424/fs/2016253-09476

Cited by 17 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 51 publications

(58 reference statements)

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“…Mediterranean trees species are classified among many different taxa with a large biodiversity levels that, in part, originated as adaptive responses to previous climate changes ( Benito Garzón et al 2007). Indeed, many recent research efforts have focused on populations living at marginal ecological do-mains in the Mediterranean region (Hampe & Petit 2005, Marchi et al 2016. Both biodiversity conservation and sustainable forest management issues may be supported by the results of this study.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 59%

“…Climate change effects have already been observed for tree species and ecological systems (Lindner et al 2010). For example, Boisvert-Marsh et al (2014) reported a latitudinal shift of the distribution of forest species in North America; similar studies have been conducted in Europe and specifically in the Mediterranean region (Marchi et al 2016). Chirici et al (2017) reported the effects of recent, unprecedented wind storms in Italy, and Allen et al (2010) conducted a global review of tree mortality following heat waves and water stresses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

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Reviewing climatic traits for the main forest tree species in Italy

Pecchi¹,

Marchi²,

Giannetti³

et al. 2019

iForest

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The future dynamics of forest species and ecosystems depend on the effects of climate change and are related to forest management strategies. The expected impacts of climate change are linked to forest growth and productivity. An increase in the length of the growing season and greater productivity are likely as well as shifts in average climatic values and more variable frequencies, intensities, durations and timings of extreme events. The main aim of this work is to assess and describe the climatic requirements for Italian forest tree species. We used 7,272 field observations from Italian National Forest Inventory plots and average annual temperatures and precipitation as interpolated from raster maps with 1 km spatial resolution. On this basis we evaluated the current observed distributions of the 19 most important tree species in Italy with respect to potential climatic limits based on expert knowledge and the available literature. We found that only 46% of the observations fall within the potential joint temperature and precipitation limits as defined by expert knowledge. For precipitation alone, 70% of observations were within the potential limits, and for temperature alone, 80% of observations were within the potential limits. Similarity between current observed and potential limits differ from species-to-species with broadleaves in general more frequently distributed within the potential climatic limits than conifers. We found that ecological requirements and potential information should be revised for some species, particularly for the Pinus genus and more frequently for precipitation. The results of the study are particularly relevant given the threat of climate change effects for Italian forests which are broadly acknowledged to be a biodiversity hotspot. Further investigations should be aimed at modelling the effects of climate changes on Italian forests as a basis for development of mitigation and adaptation forest management strategies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 59%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Reviewing climatic traits for the main forest tree species in Italy

Pecchi¹,

Marchi²,

Giannetti³

et al. 2019

iForest

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“…Many environmental and modelling studies are focused on longterm climatic averages (e.g., climatic normal over a 30 years period) to determine the effects of climate change on forest populations (Isaac-Renton et al 2014, Marchi et al 2016. However, an increasing degree of representativeness is needed in studies that require a higher temporal-resolution, such as dendrochronology (Amodei et al 2012, Marchi et al 2015, or studies based on seasonal effects on plant growth (Rathgeber et al 2011, Savi & Fares 2014, Kramer et al 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the recent decades the climatological aspect gained an increasing attention also in the forestry field due to direct effects on forest resources (Perdinan & Winkler 2014, Schueler et al 2014, Fady et al 2016, Marchi et al 2016), which in turn are fundamental to preserve ecosystem services biodiversity and multi-functionality by means of a sustainable forest management (Di Salvatore et al 2013, Marchetti et al 2014, Salvati et al 2016. Minimum requirements for ecological studies are generally long-term time series of meteorological variables collected in the environment under investigation or at least in forest sites as close as possible to the studied environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sampling strategies for high quality time-series of climatic variables in forest resource assessment

Ferrara¹,

Marchi²,

Fares³

et al. 2017

iForest

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Many ecological studies require long-term time series of high quality. Missing data may represent a serious problem since they can affect the reliability of measured variables in specific locations. To which extent and according to which methodology a gap in time series should be filled is a major research challenge. In this study, the time-series of meteorological data relative to 13 monitoring sites from the ICP-Forest network in Italy were analysed with the aim to define the minimum number of site-specific observations, which can be considered adequate for further analysis on forest resource management. Three main climatic variables were taken into account in the analysis: air temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation. By using an increasing proportion of available data, descriptive and inferential statistic methods were applied to evaluate the amount of variability along the period of analysis (1998-2013) and associated error of estimation at seasonal level. The relative importance of each factor accounted in our analysis (season, year, variable, plot, sampling proportion) was investigated fitting a Random Forest model on the results of the bootstrapping procedure. Air temperature was the variable with a marked seasonal profile and the easiest to be represented at monthly level on a specific time period. Humidity and precipitation were more stable across the analysed time period. Trends in precipitation showed that a high amount of variability could be detected only when > 80% of valid observations were available. Humidity showed an intermediate pattern, with an exponential increase in the amount of explained variability when using an increased proportion of sampled observations. Random Forest Regression models indicated sampling proportion (i.e., number of available observations) as an important factor for trend analysis of relative air humidity and precipitation. We conclude that monthly or seasonal statistics can be proficiently estimated for both air temperature and relative humidity with a proportion of missing values higher than 50%. Conversely, a reliable analysis of intra-seasonal or intramonthly precipitation variability requires a much higher amount of observations. In the latter case gap filling represents the only feasible solution.

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“…Error Sin embargo, estudios de modelos de proyección a futuro (2050,2080,2100) para especies de alta montaña concluyen que el cambio climático representa una amenaza innegable para su existencia, además del cambio en el uso del suelo, que representa la causa más grave para su extinción (Keenan, 2016;Marchi et al, 2016). Las especies sensibles a la temperatura pueden responder a un clima cálido moviéndose a lugares más fríos en latitudes o altitudes más altas (Tang et al, 2017).…”

Section: Estimadorunclassified

Distribución potencial de Abies vejarii (Pinaceae) y su relación con factores ambientales, topográficos y antropogénicos en el noreste de México.

et al. 2020

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Resumen:Antecedentes y Objetivos: Abies vejarii (oyamel) es una especie endémica del noreste de México, actualmente catalogada como Casi Amenazada por la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN), con poblaciones aisladas. Los objetivos del presente estudio fueron i) buscar áreas en donde se reúnan las condiciones ideales para el desarrollo del oyamel utilizando el algoritmo de máxima entropía en la Sierra Madre Oriental (SMOR), ii) identificar las variables ambientales topográficas asociadas a su distribución actual y iii) evaluar los impactos antropogénicos actuales en la distribución de A. vejarii. Métodos: Mediante un modelo de distribución de especie (MDE), se modeló la idoneidad de su hábitat, utilizando datos bioclimáticos y topográficos. Se identificaron las variables ambientales que influyen en su distribución geográfica mediante análisis cluster (CA) y de componentes principales (PCA). Finalmente, se relacionó el efecto del impacto antropogénico sobre sus áreas de distribución actual. Resultados clave: El área total que se predice y que es climáticamente adecuada para su presencia es de 67,096 ha. El análisis de las variables ambientales y topográficas mostró que el rango anual de temperatura y la precipitación del mes más seco resultaron ser las más importantes. Se encontró una asociación negativa y significativa con el impacto antropogénico. La Sierra Madre Oriental presenta las condiciones que son el hábitat favorable para la persistencia de A. vejarii. Conclusiones: La cuantificación de las áreas óptimas que permitan el establecimiento y desarrollo de A. vejarii hará posible diseñar estrategias y prescribir acciones para la conservación y restauración de las poblaciones de esta especie.

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Future scenarios and conservation strategies for a rear-edge marginal population of Pinus nigra Arnold in Italian central Apennines

Cited by 17 publications

References 51 publications

Reviewing climatic traits for the main forest tree species in Italy

Reviewing climatic traits for the main forest tree species in Italy

Sampling strategies for high quality time-series of climatic variables in forest resource assessment

Distribución potencial de Abies vejarii (Pinaceae) y su relación con factores ambientales, topográficos y antropogénicos en el noreste de México.

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