Vote expectations at the next level. Trying to predict vote shares in the 2013 German federal election by polling expectations

Ganser, Christian; Riordan, Patrick

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.08.001

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…This study examined student intention to vote and elect representatives, similar to prior research that also investigated the concept of "intention" within the context of elections (Ganser & Riordan 2015). Research on student elections has been receiving much attention (Saha & Print, 2010).…”

Section: Student Participation In University Governance and Electionsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Facebook Communication and Marketing Influence on Decision-Making and Choice of University Student Representatives: A Student’s Perspective

et al. 2019

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Facebook has become the main platform for young adults to sustain their social presence as well as expand their social networks. The impact of social media on youth decision-making has attracted much attention in research and academia. The research setting was at University of Fort Hare, a university located in South Africa. Before and during a student representative council (SRC) election at the university, the six student parties contesting for the leadership office utilised Facebook in communicating and marketing their campaign messages to fellow students. This research therefore empirically investigated how Facebook influenced university students’ intention to vote and elect an SRC for the institution. The survey methodology was adopted in collecting data and non-probability sampling, a form of convenience sampling was utilised in selection of suitable participants for the study. A total of 381 students participated in the study responding to questions examining potential drivers of selection of a particular student representative party (SRP). A conceptual model was developed with Facebook constructs that included “medium credibility of Facebook”, “peer communication on Facebook” and “user trust of Facebook” among other factors that influence students’ choice of an (SRP). The main findings established that identification with peers was observed as having the most significant impact on youths’ intention to vote for student representatives. Message credibility was found to have weak impact on student’s intention to vote for a particular (SRC) candidate. Implications emerged from the findings and further research suggestions were provided.

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Section: Student Participation In University Governance and Electionsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Facebook Communication and Marketing Influence on Decision-Making and Choice of University Student Representatives: A Student’s Perspective

et al. 2019

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“…Some, but not much. Ganser and Riordan (2015) discussed CF of vote shares in an ex-post study in which vote-intention questions actually performed better. Lehrer, Juhl, and Gschwend (2019) conducted a "wisdom of the crowds" study of the 2017 national election and found that CF does well in predicting the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) vote-but, again, the effort was ex-post.…”

Section: Lewismentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizen Forecasts of the 2021 German Election

Murr

Lewis‐Beck

2021

APSC

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“…In the individual case, election outcomes have been forecast based on the political profile of a candidate and/or the profile of the voters of the respective electoral district; examples of this type of forecasting are seen in the parliamentary elections of 2010 in the USA (see [2]) or in the 2017 presidential and parliamentary elections in Chile (see [3]). In the case of coalitions, a typical feature of parliamentary systems, the goal is to predict the "share" or "quota" of votes that parties or coalitions will receive; examples such prediction analysis have been presented for recent elections in the UK (see [4]), in the USA (see [5]), and in Germany (see [6]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Candidates’ Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach

et al. 2021

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In recent years, a wide range of techniques has been developed to predict electoral results and to measure the influence of different factors in these results. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the political profile of candidates (characterized by personal and political features) and their campaign effort (characterized by electoral expenditure and by territorial deployment strategies retrieved from social networks activity) on the electoral results. This analysis is carried out by using three of the most frequent data analyitcs algorithms in the literature. For our analysis, we consider the 2017 Parliamentary elections in Chile, which are the first elections after a major reform of the electoral system, that encompassed a transition from a binomial to a proportional system, a modification of the districts’ structure, an increase in the number of seats, and the requirement of gender parity in the lists of the different coalitions. The obtained results reveal that, regardless of the political coalition, the electoral experience of candidates, in particular in the same seat they are running for (even when the corresponding district is modified), is by large the most influential factor to explain the electoral results. However, the attained results show that the influence of other features, such as campaign expenditures, depends on the political coalition. Additionally, by means of a simulation procedure, we show how different levels of territorial deployment efforts might impact on the results of candidates. This procedure could be used by parties and coalitions when planning their campaign strategies.

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Vote expectations at the next level. Trying to predict vote shares in the 2013 German federal election by polling expectations

Cited by 17 publications

References 45 publications

Facebook Communication and Marketing Influence on Decision-Making and Choice of University Student Representatives: A Student’s Perspective

Facebook Communication and Marketing Influence on Decision-Making and Choice of University Student Representatives: A Student’s Perspective

Citizen Forecasts of the 2021 German Election

The Impact of Candidates’ Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach

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