Volcanoes of the World

Siebert, Lee; Simkin, Tom; Kimberly, Paul

doi:10.1525/9780520947931

Cited by 176 publications

(198 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…In PVHA, and across the volcanological community, there is still great debate about what measures are most adequate to define the size of a given eruption. Here, we leave aside the fact that volcanic eruptions are multistaged events composed of many distinctive eruptive phases (e.g., Cassidy et al, 2018; Jenkins et al, 2007; Ogburn et al, 2015; Siebert et al, 2010). Data requirements to model this intraeruption aleatory variability are enormous, and clearly lacking at Aluto, as research in this area of PVHA is currently under development (e.g., Bebbington & Jenkins, 2019; Wolpert et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(We remove the rock type “Dacite” from the GVP profile of Aluto volcano to run VOLCANS, because there is no evidence to support the presence of such rock type in the post‐caldera erupted products of Aluto, e.g., Clarke et al, 2019; Fontijn et al, 2018; Hutchison, Pyle, et al, 2016; Hutchison et al, 2018; Iddon et al, 2019; McNamara et al, 2018). The reasoning behind this choice is that peralkaline volcanic systems are more likely to be tied to tectonic settings similar to that of Aluto, especially because the GVP database, and thus VOLCANS, do not differentiate peralkaline and metaluminous rock suites (Siebert et al, 2010). Volcano morphology is given the lowest weight in all the explored weighting schemes because the intermediate value that Aluto has for the simplified morphology metric used by VOLCANS ( M Aluto = 0.579) is quite similar to the mean value of shield volcanoes (mean ( M shields ) = 0.567, Tierz et al, 2019).…”

Section: Aluto Event Tree: Using Volcanological Knowledge To Quantifymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long‐Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia)

Tierz

Clarke

Calder

et al. 2020

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Aluto is a peralkaline rhyolitic caldera located in a highly populated area in central Ethiopia. Its postcaldera eruptive activity has mainly consisted of self-similar, pumice-cone-building eruptions of varying size and vent location. These eruptions are explosive, generating hazardous phenomena that could impact proximal to distal areas from the vent. Volcanic hazard assessments in Ethiopia and the East African Rift are still limited in number. In this study, we develop an event tree model for Aluto volcano. The event tree is doubly useful: It facilitates the design of a conceptual model for the volcano and provides a framework to quantify volcanic hazard. We combine volcanological data from past and recent research at Aluto, and from a tool to objectively derive analog volcanoes (VOLCANS), to parameterize the event tree, including estimates of the substantial epistemic uncertainty. Results indicate that the probability of a silicic eruption in the next 50 years is highly uncertain, ranging from 2% to 35%. This epistemic uncertainty has a critical influence on event-tree estimates for other volcanic events, like the probability of occurrence of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) in the next 50 years. The 90% credible interval for the latter is 5-16%, considering only the epistemic uncertainty in conditional eruption size and PDC occurrence, but 2-23% when adding the epistemic uncertainty in the probability of eruption in 50 years. Despite some anticipated challenges, we envisage that our event tree could be translated to other rift volcanoes, making it an important tool to quantify volcanic hazard in Ethiopia and elsewhere. Ethiopia is the second most populous nation (estimated~110 million inhabitants; e.g., World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2019) and the fastest growing economy in Africa (World Bank, https://data. worldbank.org/region/sub-saharan-africa). Ethiopia also holds the largest number of Holocene volcanoes (~60) in the African continent (e.g., Global Volcanism Program, 2013). Globally, Ethiopia ranks second only to Indonesia in having the largest number of active volcanoes at the highest level of uncertainty related to volcanic hazard (i.e., in terms of available data and monitoring activities, Aspinall et al., 2011). Additionally, exposure to volcanic hazard is high in Ethiopia (Aspinall et al., 2011) and is rapidly increasing with continued economic and industrial development (Aspinall et al., 2011; United Nations

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aluto Event Tree: Using Volcanological Knowledge To Quantifymentioning

confidence: 99%

Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long‐Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia)

Tierz

Clarke

Calder

et al. 2020

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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“…Furthermore, hazards, fatalities and pre-eruptive indices are listed in the database. A full description of the database feature can be found in Siebert and others (2010) and Ortiz and others (2015).…”

Section: Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Area changes of glaciers on active volcanoes in Latin America between 1986 and 2015 observed from multi-temporal satellite imagery

et al. 2019

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Glaciers on active volcanoes are subject to changes in both climate fluctuations and volcanic activity. Whereas many studies analysed changes on individual volcanoes, this study presents for the first time a comparison of glacier changes on active volcanoes on a continental scale. Glacier areas were mapped for 59 volcanoes across Latin America around 1986, 1999 and 2015 using a semi-automated band ratio method combined with manual editing using satellite images from Landsat 4/5/7/8 and Sentinel-2. Area changes were compared with the Smithsonian volcano database to analyse possible glacier–volcano interactions. Over the full period, the mapped area changed from 1399.3 ± 80 km2to 1016.1 ± 34 km2(−383.2 km2) or −27.4% (−0.92% a−1) in relative terms. Small glaciers, especially in tropical regions lost more of their area compared to large and extra–tropical glaciers. Interestingly, 46 out of 59 analysed glaciers (78%) showed a decelerating shrinkage rate in the second period (−1.20% a−1before 1999 and −0.70% a−1after 1999). We found a slightly higher (but statistically not significant) area loss rate (−1.03% a−1) for glaciers on volcanoes with eruptions than without (−0.86% a−1).

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“…Along the southern sector of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (between 24° and 27° latitude), a magmatic arc of north–south general orientation, with prolongations toward the back-arc following the regional northwest–southeast tectonic lineaments, has developed since the Neogene (Kay and Coira, 2009; Petrinovic et al, 2017). Recent volcanic activity in this region is mainly associated with andesitic-dacitic stratovolcanoes along the main arc, some of which are considered potentially active, although most are poorly known (Siebert et al, 2010; Grosse et al, 2018). Very few of these stratovolcanoes have recorded historical activity, and only Lascar volcano has registered regular eruptions in recent decades (Gardeweg et al, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chronological and geomorphological approach to the Holocene tephras from Tafí and Santa María valleys, NW Argentina

et al. 2020

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A comprehensive morphostratigraphic and chronological study of the complete set of Holocene tephras from Tafí and Santa María valleys (northwestern Argentina), including analyses of compositional characteristics, is presented. Five ash tephras are recognized: V0 (El Rincón), V1a (Carreras 1a ash), V1b (Carreras 1b ash), V2a (Carreras 2 ash), and V2b (El Paso 3 ash). Two of them (V1b and V2b) are described for the first time in the study area. The new 14C and accelerator mass spectrometry ages presented, along with the previously published information, allows for the establishment of a chronological framework. The V0 tephra was deposited in the Early Holocene (about 10,000 yr BP), V1a and V1b were deposited in the Middle Holocene (about 4200 and 3500 yr BP, respectively), and V2a and V2b were deposited in the Late Holocene (after about 800 yr BP). The mineralogical, textural, and geochemical characterizations of the five tephras suggest that their tephra provenance was mainly from the back-arc region. However, the determination of the exact source of each tephra requires more accurate high-resolution tephrochronological studies. At least five major eruptions affected the Tafí and Santa María valleys in the last 10,000 yr.

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Volcanoes of the World

Cited by 176 publications

References 3 publications

Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long‐Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia)

Event Trees and Epistemic Uncertainty in Long‐Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment of Rift Volcanoes: The Example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia)

Area changes of glaciers on active volcanoes in Latin America between 1986 and 2015 observed from multi-temporal satellite imagery

Chronological and geomorphological approach to the Holocene tephras from Tafí and Santa María valleys, NW Argentina

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