2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.23.20111419
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Visualizing the invisible: The effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19

Abstract: Understanding the outbreak dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic has important implications for successful containment and mitigation strategies. Recent studies suggest that the population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, a proxy for the number of asymptomatic cases, could be an order of magnitude larger than expected from the number of reported symptomatic cases. Knowing the precise prevalence and contagiousness of asymptomatic transmission is critical to estimate the overall dimension and pandemic potential … Show more

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Cited by 43 publications
(63 citation statements)
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“…This value is lower than 94% for the measles, 89% for chickenpox with, 86% for mumps and rubella, and 80% for polio [ 3 ], but significantly higher than the values of 16% to 27% for the seasonal flu [ 7 ]. The countries with the highest prevalence, Luxembourg with 0.72%, Sweden with 0.71%, and Spain with 0.64% [ 15 ], do currently not even come close to these values, not even when including asymptomatic cases that are believed to increase the prevalence by an order of magnitude [ 43 ], resulting in 7.2%, 7.1%, and 6.4%. Knowing the precise basic reproduction number of COVID-19 will be critical to estimate the conditions for herd immunity and predict the success of vaccination strategies.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This value is lower than 94% for the measles, 89% for chickenpox with, 86% for mumps and rubella, and 80% for polio [ 3 ], but significantly higher than the values of 16% to 27% for the seasonal flu [ 7 ]. The countries with the highest prevalence, Luxembourg with 0.72%, Sweden with 0.71%, and Spain with 0.64% [ 15 ], do currently not even come close to these values, not even when including asymptomatic cases that are believed to increase the prevalence by an order of magnitude [ 43 ], resulting in 7.2%, 7.1%, and 6.4%. Knowing the precise basic reproduction number of COVID-19 will be critical to estimate the conditions for herd immunity and predict the success of vaccination strategies.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To account for societal and political actions [ 39 ], we introduce a behavior specific dynamic contact rate β = β ( t ) that varies both in space and time [ 22 ]. For easier interpretation, we express the contact rate, in terms of the dynamic effective reproduction number R( t ) [ 9 ], for which we make an ansatz of Gaussian random walk type [ 30 ] with a constant time-window of four days, Here N( t ) is the time-varying Gaussian distribution, parameterized in terms of the drift μ and the daily stepwidth τ = τ */[1.0− s ], where τ * is the the step width precision and s is the associated smoothing parameter [ 23 ].…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This poses a particular risk as schools and universities come back to campus in the fall of 2020. Second, high levels of undocumented cases may imply that cities are closer to achieving herd immunity than suggested by confirmed case counts [25][26][27] .…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%