This work presents the first fully validated and predictive finite element modeling framework to generate the probabilistic penetration response of an aramid woven fabric subjected to ballistic impact. This response is defined by a V 0-V 100 curve that describes the probability of complete fabric penetration as a function of projectile impact velocity. The exemplar case considered in this article comprises a single-layer, fully clamped, plain-weave Kevlar fabric impacted at the center by a 0.22 cal spherical steel projectile. The fabric finite element model comprises individually modeled three-dimensional warp and fill yarns and is validated against the experimental material microstructure. Sources of statistical variability including yarn strength and modulus, inter-yarn friction, and precise projectile impact location are mapped into the finite element model. A series of impact simulations at varying projectile impact velocities is executed using LS-DYNA on the fabric models, each comprising unique mappings. The impact velocities and outcomes (penetration, non-penetration) are used to generate the numerical V 0-V 100 curve which is then validated against the experimental V 0-V 100 curve obtained from ballistic impact testing and shown to be in excellent agreement. The experimental data and its statistical analysis used for model input and validation, namely, the Kevlar yarn tensile strengths and moduli, inter-yarn friction, and fabric ballistic impact testing, are also reported.