Violence risk prediction

Dolan, Mairead; Doyle, Michael

doi:10.1192/bjp.177.4.303

Cited by 317 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 54 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…A four-predictor risk assessment model was found, comprising: absence without leave during TBS; comorbidity of axis 2 and substance use disorder at admission; Cluster B personality disorder; and psychosis at admission. This set predicted future reconvictions for sexual or violent offences with considerable accuracy, comparable to that of the VRAG, HCR-20 and PCL-r (Dolan & Doyle, 2000).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample.

Philipse¹,

Koeter²,

Staak³

et al. 2006

Law and Human Behavior

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If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patientsAccurate assessments of patients' reoffending risk is of supreme importance in forensic psychiatric settings. Arguably, the extent to which risk is reduced during treatment and can be properly managed afterwards, are the prime markers for treatment success in such settings; accurate estimates of these parameters are therefore

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample.

Philipse¹,

Koeter²,

Staak³

et al. 2006

Law and Human Behavior

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“…We note that in the (human) social sciences a predictive accuracy of AUC = 0.75 is already considered a large effect (42).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The ecology of religious beliefs

Botero

Gardner

Kirby

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

175

159

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Although ecological forces are known to shape the expression of sociality across a broad range of biological taxa, their role in shaping human behavior is currently disputed. Both comparative and experimental evidence indicate that beliefs in moralizing high gods promote cooperation among humans, a behavioral attribute known to correlate with environmental harshness in nonhuman animals. Here we combine fine-grained bioclimatic data with the latest statistical tools from ecology and the social sciences to evaluate the potential effects of environmental forces, language history, and culture on the global distribution of belief in moralizing high gods (n = 583 societies). After simultaneously accounting for potential nonindependence among societies because of shared ancestry and cultural diffusion, we find that these beliefs are more prevalent among societies that inhabit poorer environments and are more prone to ecological duress. In addition, we find that these beliefs are more likely in politically complex societies that recognize rights to movable property. Overall, our multimodel inference approach predicts the global distribution of beliefs in moralizing high gods with an accuracy of 91%, and estimates the relative importance of different potential mechanisms by which this spatial pattern may have arisen. The emerging picture is neither one of pure cultural transmission nor of simple ecological determinism, but rather a complex mixture of social, cultural, and environmental influences. Our methods and findings provide a blueprint for how the increasing wealth of ecological, linguistic, and historical data can be leveraged to understand the forces that have shaped the behavior of our own species.religion | cultural evolution | environmental effects | ecological risk | supernatural beliefs

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“…They are characterized by a high risk of crime recidivism, poor compliance with community and aftercare programs, and homelessness (Dolan & Doyle, 2000;Jamieson & Taylor, 2002;Teplin, 1990).…”

Section: Patients' Profilementioning

confidence: 99%

Violent behavior of patients living in psychiatric residential facilities: A comparison of male patients with different violence histories

Candini

Buizza

Ferrari

et al. 2015

International Journal of Law and Psychiatry

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People with severe mental disorders and a history of violence are often seen as a difficult-to-manage segment of the population. In addition, this group is usually characterized by a high risk of crime recidivism, and poor compliance with community and aftercare programs. To investigate a sample of male patients living in Residential Facilities (RFs) with a history of violent behavior against people and to compare their characteristics with those of never-violent residents; to analyze the associations between aggressive behaviors in the last two years and a history of previous violence; and, to assess the predictors of aggressive behaviors. This study is part of a prospective observational cohort study which involved 23 RFs in Northern Italy. A comprehensive set of sociodemographic, clinical, and treatment-related information was gathered, and standardized assessments were administered to each participant. Also a detailed assessment of aggressive behaviors in the past two years was carried out. The study involved 268 males: 81 violent and 187 never-violent. Compared to never-violent patients, violent patients were younger, with a higher proportion of personality disorders, and have displayed an increased number of aggressive behaviors in the last two years. The presence of a history of violent behavior in the past significantly increases the probability of committing aggressive acts in the future.

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Violence risk prediction

Abstract: Violence risk prediction is an inexact science and as such will continue to provoke debate. Clinicians clearly need to be able to demonstrate the rationale behind their decisions on violence risk and much can be learned from recent developments in research on violence risk prediction.

Cited by 317 publications

References 54 publications

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample.

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample.

The ecology of religious beliefs

Violent behavior of patients living in psychiatric residential facilities: A comparison of male patients with different violence histories

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