Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: model performance and projections

Wehner, Michael

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1393-1

Cited by 125 publications

(118 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…All Rights Reserved. regional climate change simulations over western North America give predictions that appear to be consistent with our results, with the largest fractional changes in both mean and extreme wintertime precipitation occurring in the immediate lee of the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada and relatively modest increases on windward slopes [Diffenbaugh et al, 2005;Wehner, 2013]. While much more research is needed to understand the full response of orographic precipitation to climate change in any particular mountain range, we hope that our results might serve as a useful benchmark against which other predictions can be interpreted and evaluated.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? An idealized thermodynamic perspective

Siler

Roe

2014

Geophys. Res. Lett.

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Future changes in orographic precipitation will have important consequences for societies and ecosystems near mountain ranges. Here we use a simple numerical model to evaluate the response of orographic precipitation to surface warming under idealized conditions representative of the strongest orographic storms. We find an upward shift in the pattern of condensation with warming, caused by larger fractional changes in condensation at low temperature and amplified warming aloft. As a result, the distribution of precipitation shifts downwind, causing larger fractional changes in precipitation on the lee slope than on the windward slope. Total precipitation is found to increase by a smaller fraction than near‐surface water vapor, in contrast to expected changes in other types of extreme precipitation. Factors limiting the increase in orographic precipitation include the pattern of windward ascent, leeside evaporation, and thermodynamic constraints on the change in condensation with temperature.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? An idealized thermodynamic perspective

Siler

Roe

2014

Geophys. Res. Lett.

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“…The NARCCAP data resulted from different combinations of RCM and GCM models, and the spatial resolution used by all the RCMs differ only slightly from each other. However, the formulations and parametrization methods used by the RCMs vary greatly from each other [67]. These RCMs are driven by the four GCMs that again differ from each other with regard to formulations and parametrizations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

2016

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Abstract:The intensification of the hydrological cycle due to climate change entails more frequent and intense rainfall. As a result, urban water systems will be disproportionately affected by the climate change, especially in such urban areas as Las Vegas, which concentrates its population, infrastructure, and economic activity. Proper design and management of stormwater facilities are needed to attenuate the severe effects of extreme rainfall events. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is developing multiple high-resolution projected-climate data from different combinations of regional climate models and global climate models. The objective of this study was to evaluate existing stormwater facilities of a watershed within the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada by using a robust design method for the projected climate. The projected climate change was incorporated into the model at the 100 year return period with 6 h duration depths, using a statistical regionalization analysis method. Projection from different sets of climate model combinations varied substantially. Gridded reanalysis data were used to assess the performance of the climate models. An existing Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model was implemented using the projected change in standard design storm. Hydrological simulation using HEC-HMS showed exceedances of existing stormwater facilities that were designed under the assumption of stationarity design depth. Recognizing climate change and taking an immediate approach in assessing the city's vulnerability by using proper strategic planning would benefit the urban sector and improve the quality of life.

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“…The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is a dynamical downscaling program with the ensemble of GCM-RCM combinations that serves the highresolution climate scenario needs for the North America (Mearns et al, 2013). The mesoscale framework in NARCCAP results in more extreme precipitation events compared to the GCMs, and becoming less deviated from observations (Gutowski et al, 2010;Wehner, 2013). Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is another project that employed dynamical downscaling over multiple regions of interest around the globe (Europe, South Africa, East Asia, etc.)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska

et al. 2018

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Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979-2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950-2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006-2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

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Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: model performance and projections

Cited by 125 publications

References 44 publications

How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? An idealized thermodynamic perspective

How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? An idealized thermodynamic perspective

Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska

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