Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part I: Analysis Errors and Short-Term NAM and GFS Forecasts

Charles, Michael E.; Colle, Brian A.

doi:10.1175/waf2222169.1

Cited by 15 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…12) and mobile synoptic-scale storms. This study and others (Charles and Colle 2009;Wedam et al 2009) demonstrate that the GFS model is a superior model to the NAM in the Pacific Northwest. We did not examine possible causes for why the forecast errors were larger for the NAM.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

“…However, possible contributions include its early data cutoff time, the 6-h-old lateral boundary conditions, and the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. Additional information on the differences between the GFS and NAM can be found in Charles and Colle (2009) and Wedam et al (2009).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Over the time period of the study, both NCEP models experienced model and data assimilation upgrades, most notably the NAM switched from the Eta Model (Black 1994) to the Weather Research and Forecasting Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) in June 2006 (Rogers et al 2005;Black et al 2005). Information regarding the model upgrades can be found in Wedam et al (2009) and Charles and Colle (2009).…”

Section: B Forecast Errorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These errors were shown to be associated with large position and central pressure errors of mobile midlatitude cyclones. Charles and Colle (2009) and Wedam et al (2009) both show that forecast errors of sea level pressure are larger along the west coast compared to the east coast of North America for several operational numerical models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

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Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest

McMurdie

Casola

2009

Weather and Forecasting

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Despite overall improvements in numerical weather prediction and data assimilation, large short-term forecast errors of sea level pressure and 2-m temperature still occur. This is especially true for the west coast of North America where short-term numerical weather forecasts of surface low pressure systems can have large position and central pressure errors. In this study, forecast errors of sea level pressure and temperature in the Pacific Northwest are related to the shape of the large-scale flow aloft. Applying a hierarchical limitedcontour clustering algorithm to historical 500-hPa geopotential height data produces four distinct weather regimes. The Rockies ridge regime, which exhibits a ridge near the axis of the Rocky Mountains and nearly zonal flow across the Pacific, experiences the highest magnitude and frequency of large sea level pressure errors. On the other hand, the coastal ridge regime, which exhibits a ridge aligned with the North American west coast, experiences the highest magnitude and frequency of large 2-m minimum temperature errors.

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Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: B Forecast Errorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

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Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest

McMurdie

Casola

2009

Weather and Forecasting

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“…The success of numerical forecasts of these storms can vary widely, from highly accurate prediction of storm location and intensity to storm position errors on the order of hundreds of kilometers and intensity errors of tens of hectopascals (McMurdie and Mass 2004). Recent studies have shown that this region typically experiences larger short-term (,72 h) forecast errors of sea level pressure and cyclone position compared to other regions such as continental United States and the east coast of North America (Wedam et al 2009;Charles and Colle 2009). Although possible causes for these forecast errors were not addressed in those studies, McMurdie and Mass (2004) showed that initial-condition error played a significant role in the forecast errors for a particular deepening landfalling cyclone.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability Characteristics of Landfalling Cyclones along the North American West Coast

McMurdie

Ancell

2014

Monthly Weather Review

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The predictability of North Pacific cyclones can vary widely, from highly accurate prediction of storm intensity and location to forecast position errors of hundreds of kilometers and central pressure errors of tens of hectopascals. In this study, a Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) ensemble Kalman filter is used to investigate predictability of landfalling cyclones on the west coast of North America over two winter seasons (2008/09 and 2009/10). Predictability is defined as the ensemble spread of cyclone central pressure at the final forecast time (24 h) where large spread means low predictability. Both ensemble spread and ensemble initial-condition sensitivity are examined for a wide variety of cyclones that occurred during the two seasons. Storms that are deepening and track from the southwest exhibit the largest ensemble initial-condition sensitivity and highest ensemble spread compared to decaying storms and storms that track from other directions. Storms that end south of 408N, typically slow moving storms from the northwest, exhibit higher predictability regardless of whether or not they are deepening or decaying. Cyclones with large ensemble spread and low sensitivity are mature cyclones whose low predictability likely results from large initialcondition spread instead of large perturbation growth. These results highlight particular synoptic situations and cyclone characteristics that are associated with low predictability and can potentially be used to improve forecasts through improved observational coverage.

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Meteorological controls on big waves south of Africa

Jury

2019

Regional Studies in Marine Science

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Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part I: Analysis Errors and Short-Term NAM and GFS Forecasts

Cited by 15 publications

References 16 publications

Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest

Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest

Predictability Characteristics of Landfalling Cyclones along the North American West Coast

Meteorological controls on big waves south of Africa

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