Venting Out: Exports During a Domestic Slump

Almunia, Miguel; Antràs, Pol; Rodriguez, David Lopez; Morales, Eduardo

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3303155

Cited by 9 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Global supply chains are a pervasive feature of world trade (Hummels, Ishii and Yi, 2001;Johnson and Noguera, 2017) and the resulting production networks are increasingly complex and fragmented across multiple countries (Antrás, Fort and Tintlenot, 2017;Fort, 2017). Supply chains are a potentially important channel of transmitting the impact of import tariffs to exports because they can amplify shocks to demand and trade costs and demand within firms and across locations (Almunia, Antrás, Lopez-Rodriguez and Morales, 2018;Boehm, Flaaen and Pandalai-Nayar, 2019;Yi, 2003). In this paper, we estimate and quantify the supply chain spillovers to export growth of newly imposed U.S. import tariffs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Handley

Kamal

Monarch

2020

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We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we document the implied incidence and scope of new import tariffs. Firms that eventually faced tariff increases on their imports accounted for 84% of all exports and represented 65% of manufacturing employment. For all affected firms, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. To estimate the effect on U.S. export growth, we construct product-level measures of import tariff exposure of U.S. exports from the underlying firm micro data. More exposed products experienced 2 percentage point lower growth relative to products with no exposure. The decline in exports is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U.S. exports of almost 2% for the typical product and almost 4% for products with higher than average exposure.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Handley

Kamal

Monarch

2020

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“…19 Analysing a WTO dispute on several trade measures implemented by Argentina, Conconi and Schepel (2017) explain that the inefficiencies of LCRs are accentuated in industries where global value chains play an important role. 20 One explanation is that automakers could be particularly well positioned to export when domestic demand plunges, as in the analysis of Almunia et al (2018). Even though INOVAR-Auto was, most likely, the main trigger of the WTO dispute, the European Union and later, Japan, brought claims against seven different industrial programmes, including the ICT programmes.…”

Section: The Trade Consequences Of Inovar-automentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One explanation is that automakers could be particularly well positioned to export when domestic demand plunges, as in the analysis ofAlmunia et al (2018).20PPBs are product-specific criteria that set out the minimum production and manufacturing steps that need to be conducted in Brazil to obtain a benefit under certain incentives programmes.21Pre-market regulations set the conditions for goods to be placed on the market.…”

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confidence: 99%

Reopening Pandora's Box in Search of a WTO-Compatible Industrial Policy? TheBrazil–TaxationDispute

Ornelas¹,

Puccio

2020

World Trade Review

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We critically assess the Appellate Body (AB) report on the Brazil–Taxation dispute, taken to the World Trade Organisation by the European Union and Japan, and encompassing seven different Brazilian industrial programmes granting tax benefits to different firms and products. The trigger of the dispute was most likely the automotive sector programme, instituted under pressure from the local industry and without much attention to effects on consumers or imports. The resulting WTO case underscores some salient issues related to the WTO compatibility of subsidy programmes, in particular the application of the National Treatment rules to subsidies provided exclusively to domestic producers, and the identification of local content requirements, prohibited under the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM). The AB diverged from the Panel report and its jurisprudence on those issues. The AB tried to reconcile the existence of legitimate eligibility criteria in subsidy programmes and their discriminatory features with WTO rules under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the SCM. However, the legal test, developed by the AB in this dispute to distinguish prohibited local content requirements from legitimate eligibility criteria, may facilitate circumvention of the SCM prohibition of local content requirements and have important impacts on trade flows.

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“…Atendiendo a lo bien que se han comportado las exportaciones españolas en términos comparados, este es un resultado difícil de creer. No obstante, podría suponerse que ese impacto adverso del descenso en la complejidad económica habría sido compensado por el positivo derivado de otros factores, como la fuerte contracción de la demanda interna durante los años de crisis, cuyo papel se enfatiza en Almunia et al (2018), o el crecimiento de la demanda exterior hacia bienes en los que España se encuentra especializada, como alimentos, o la mejora de la calidad de los productos exportados. Conviene, empero, tomar con suma cautela los resultados expuestos, no solo por la fragilidad de la estimación efectuada, sino también por el propio significado de los cambios en el ECI.…”

Section: Fuentes: the Growth Lab At Harvard University The Atlas Of unclassified

Complejidad económica de las exportaciones españolas

2020

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En este trabajo, se estudia la complejidad económica de los productos españoles, tal y como esta se define y mide por el equipo de investigación dirigido por Ricardo Hausmann. Con este fin, se examina y se explica la evolución experimentada desde 1995 por el Índice de Complejidad Económica (ECI) calculado para España, y se compara con la seguida por el de las principales economías desarrolladas. También se analizan sus posibles efectos sobre la marcha de las exportaciones españolas, mediante una estimación muy preliminar del papel de la complejidad económica en el comercio exterior. La primera conclusión obtenida es que la complejidad económica es una fuente de ventaja competitiva de los productos, que debe ser impulsada mediante la incorporación de más capital humano y tecnológico a su obtención. La segunda es que el descenso de la complejidad económica en los países avanzados resulta en buena medida inevitable, dado que depende del número de países que fabrican productos sofisticados, el cual tiende a crecer conforme emergen nuevas economías industriales.

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Venting Out: Exports During a Domestic Slump

Cited by 9 publications

References 31 publications

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Reopening Pandora's Box in Search of a WTO-Compatible Industrial Policy? TheBrazil–TaxationDispute

Complejidad económica de las exportaciones españolas

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