Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030

Abstract

The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies, as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by building a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density. Our model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and crosssection data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the world's population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to over 2 billion units in 2030. By this time, 56% of the world's vehicles will be owned by non-OECD countries, compared with 24% in 2002. In particular, China's vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-fold, to 390 million in 2030. This fast speed of vehicle ownership expansion implies rapid growth in oil demand.

Impact of traffic zones on mobility behavior in Tehran, Iran

“…According to Strompen et al (2012), the impacts and benefits of TDM strategies can vary significantly depending on where and how they are implemented. Caution is recommended when applying TDMs in developing countries due to special circumstances such as high rates of car ownership (Dargay, Gately, & Sommer, 2007), income inequalities (Strompen et al, 2012), inefficient and insufficient public transport, walking and cycling facilities (Dissanayake & Morikawa, 2002). Besides, these countries do not have the financial resources, the intelligent transportation systems or the infrastructures necessary for implementing TDMs.…”

Energy demand and economic consequences of transport policy

“…Future annual travel demand was calculated by multiplying estimated number of vehicles in each category with annual usage and occupancy information (Table 4) assuming that annual usage, occupancy rate, and loading rate would remain constant during study period. (Dargay et al 2007). Considering trend of income and vehicle ownership growth with energy scarcity, price escalation, and car usage restraining policy, it is reasonable to expect that Bangladesh will experience growth in vehicle ownership at least as rapid as its growth in per-capita income.…”

Freight futures: The potential impact of road freight on climate policy

“…To set the initial stock of vehicles we have used a range of references, including Fulton and Eads (2004), Dargay et al (2007), Fulton et al (2009) and various reports focused on individual countries.…”