Visual cover estimates from fixed plots are often used for monitoring changes in wetland vegetation. However, while it is recognised that estimates can vary due to observer bias, vegetation height and differences in plot placement between surveys, the effects of this variability on power to detect change are rarely assessed. We used vegetation survey data from shrub swamps in the Blue Mountains, Australia, to quantify variability in visual cover estimates from these sources and how it affects power to detect change between surveys, at the swamp scale, using paired-sample ttests. Key variables included total cover of live green vegetation, bare ground and open water and the proportional cover of native vs exotic and/or terrestrial vs amphibious species, pooled across multiple 1 m 2 plots, per transect. Minimum detectable effect sizes for these variables ranged from a <1 to 23 % change in mean cover per swamp, at the lowest possible level of replication (n = 3 transects), decreasing as replication increased. Our results highlight how useful pilot study data and power analyses are for assessing the adequacy of a monitoring methodology and sampling design, particularly the effects of sampling variability and replication on the magnitude of changes that can be detected.