Variations on a theme: The conceptualization of deterrence in Israeli strategic thinking

Bar‐Joseph, Uri

doi:10.1080/09636419808429353

Cited by 35 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Finally, despite the skepticism with regard to the feasibility of deterring these actors, one must still acknowledge that in most cases both terrorists and ethnic groups—albeit to different extents—are attached to territory and to state(s). This implies that we should differentiate among distinct kinds of actors 61 ; and further, since statehood and territory increase the chances of achieving successful deterrence (for example, Bar‐Joseph 1998:180), this differentiation may have important implications with regard to the prospects of deterring them and their willingness to be socialized into these practices.…”

Section: Combining the “New” Threats Trend With The Interpretative Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Kaufmann (2001:458) suggests that one of the advantages of separation is that it strengthens an actor’s ability to successfully implement deterrence. In such situations, he claims, “the conflict changes from one of mutual pre‐emptive ethnic cleansing to something approaching conventional interstate war in which normal deterrence dynamics apply.” Similarly, deterrence scholars have provided some insights that may contribute to the study of deterrence in ethnic conflict (for example, Bar‐Joseph 1998:180; regarding the Israeli Palestinian conflict). This, of course, is not necessarily a problem in these specific studies; however, it demonstrates the need to further elaborate on the implementation of this concept.…”

Section: Deterrence and Rogue Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Emerging Fourth Wave of Deterrence Theory-Toward a New Research Agenda

Lupovici

2010

International Studies Quarterly

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In this paper, I aim to review recent empirical and theoretical developments in the study of deterrence. I suggest that an emerging wave of literature currently represents a revival in this field. However, unlike the previous waves, in which theoretical and empirical questions were studied together (realism and nuclear deterrence), in the emerging deterrence literature these two are isolated from each other. The theoretical trend of this wave is evident in new constructivist and interpretative scholarship that explores the practices of deterrence and has provided significant insights, chiefly with regard to classical empirical questions of state versus state and nuclear deterrence. The empirical trend of this wave can be seen through the work of scholars who are considering how to deter ''new'' threats-such as terrorism, rogue states, and ethnic conflicts-mainly by incorporating the traditional realist approach to deterrence. By reviewing these two trends in the current wave of deterrence writing, I demonstrate the advantages of each and suggest that the study of deterrence may benefit from their integration.Following Robert Jervis' seminal work of 1979, in which he reviewed the theories of deterrence and differentiated among their three waves of development, 2 I suggest that we are currently facing the emergence of a fourth wave. More specifically, I posit that this wave is made up of two isolated trends. The first trend is theoretical and is evident through emerging interpretative deterrence research. The second trend is empirical and has evolved around the questions of how to deter terrorists and rogue states and to prevent ethnic conflicts. In general, these studies counter the ''new'' threats through extensions of traditional Cold War deterrence theories. 3 I argue that these two trends have surprisingly little influence on each other.

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Section: Combining the “New” Threats Trend With The Interpretative Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Deterrence and Rogue Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Emerging Fourth Wave of Deterrence Theory-Toward a New Research Agenda

Lupovici

2010

International Studies Quarterly

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“…Od střetu s Fatahem v roce 2007 Hamás sám účinně kontroluje pásmo Gazy. 2 Second Stage of Operation Cast Lead Begins [online]. 3 Viz například COHEN, Stuart, The Futility of Operation Cast Lead; KATZ, Yaakov, The operation is over but the war continues; WALT, Stephen, The myth of Israel's strategic genius.…”

Section: Závěrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study also asks this question but in a more profound and structured manner. In order to do so it sees the operation and a few preceding and following months through the lens of four different conceptions of deterrence which can be found in Israeli security thinking (and were laid out by Uri Bar-Joseph in 1998). More specifically, the study tries to answer these questions: Which strategy of deterrence had Israel used before operation Cast Lead?…”

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confidence: 99%

Operace Lité olovo z pohledu izraelských strategií odstrašování

Kalous¹

2009

OaS (DaS)

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“…Strong states appear generally more capable of deterring new challenges (Mearsheimer 1983;Shimshoni 1988;Lieberman 1994Lieberman , 1995Huth 1988Huth , 1996Bueno de Mesquita, Morrow, and Zorick 1997). Strength, however, cannot always prevent lowlevel "probes" through which challenging states evaluate their opponents" resolve (George and Smoke 1974;Lieberman 1994Lieberman ,1995Shimshoni 1988;Bar-Joseph 1998;Morris 1993;Huth, Bennett and Gelpi 1992;Huth and Russett 1993). Similarly, reputations for resolve on the part of the threatening state contribute to deterrence success only conditionally.…”

Section: Power Through Coercive Meansmentioning

confidence: 99%

Private incentives, public outcomes

Licht¹

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When do foreign influence attempts succeed in obtaining concessions from targeted states, and why do they so often fail? Powerful states employ a broad range of foreign policy tools in their dealings with other countries, but their ability to successfully exert power varies. This project seeks an explanation for the patchy record of foreign aid and economic sanctions in the political incentives of targeted leaders. Understanding the process of foreign policy success and failure requires considering both the effect of intervention on leader survival and the domestic cost of providing concessions. In both respects, the type of sanction interacts with targets' domestic context. Dynamic trends in leadership experience and political support, strength of political opposition, and regime type condition both the probability of sanctions' effectively tapping into target incentives and the difficulty of providing concessions. My framework and analyses push beyond standard conceptualizations of leader incentives and foreign policy in several ways. The theory unites positive and negative vi Specifcation: Concession to Economic Sanctions .

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Variations on a theme: The conceptualization of deterrence in Israeli strategic thinking

Cited by 35 publications

References 27 publications

The Emerging Fourth Wave of Deterrence Theory-Toward a New Research Agenda

The Emerging Fourth Wave of Deterrence Theory-Toward a New Research Agenda

Operace Lité olovo z pohledu izraelských strategií odstrašování

Private incentives, public outcomes

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