Variations in Risk Management Models: A Comparative Study of the Space Shuttle Challenger Disasters

Altabbakh, Hanan; Murray, Susan L.; Grantham, Katie; Damle, Siddharth B.

doi:10.1080/10429247.2013.11431971

Cited by 19 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…A certain probability interval can be used instead of the precise probability value, the probability of the bottom event is represented by a fuzzy number, and the probability of the occurrence of the top event is calculated by fuzzy mathematical arithmetic (Zhao and Gong 2001). The advantage of this method is that the language used to evaluate events allows errors within a certain range so that a relatively accurate probability of occurrence of the fault tree top events can be obtained (Altabbakh et al 2013).…”

Section: Basic Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of ice dams for water diversion projects based on fuzzy fault trees

2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Ice dams are among the important risks affecting the operational safety and water conveyance efficiency of water diversion projects in northern China. However, no evaluation indicator system for ice dam risk assessment of water diversion projects has been proposed. Therefore, in this paper, based on the formation mechanism of ice dams, the risk assessment indicator system and the possibility calculation model of ice dams were both proposed for water diversion projects based on the fuzzy fault tree analysis method. The ice dam risk fault tree constructed in this study mainly includes three aspects: ice production, ice transport, and ice submergence conditions. Eighteen basic risk indicators were identified, and 72 minimum cut sets were obtained by using the mountain climb method. Eight risk indicators were determined as the key risk indicators for ice dams, including meteorological conditions, narrowed cross section, sluice incident, erroneous scheduling judgment, ice cover influence, flat bed slope, control structures, and ice flow resistance of piers. Then, the canal from the Fenzhuanghe sluice to the Beijumahe sluice of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project was taken as the research object. Combined with the expert scoring method, the ice dam risk probability of the canal was determined to be 0.2029 × 10−2, which was defined as a level III risk, which is an occasionally occurring risk. The study results can support ice dam risk prevention and canal system operation in winter for water diversion projects.

show abstract

Section: Basic Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of ice dams for water diversion projects based on fuzzy fault trees

2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, this technique, although great at developing actions plans, requires preidentified hazards to operate-meaning it is intended to be employed after an incident. Also, the authors point out that "the model does not consider basic component risks, but is broader, encompassing system/organization wide issues" ( [17], p. 15).…”

Section: Downloaded By [University Of Sussex Library] At 13:13 30 Decmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…In [17], various risk management models are compared against the shuttle disaster. From their analysis, they determined the best risk analysis method to employ is the Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) method.…”

Section: Downloaded By [University Of Sussex Library] At 13:13 30 Decmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of Perturbation with Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Estimate the Reliability of the Space Shuttle Field Joints

Jenab

Nicoll

2015

International Journal for Computational Methods in Engineering

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The space shuttle Challenger disaster was brought on by a faulty design and a misunderstanding of reliability. The purpose of this article is to illuminate some shortcomings in the design and interpretations of the systems reliability. It will be shown that the evidence was in place, waiting for discovery long before the disaster, and the tools been available to better evaluate the reliability of the shuttle, the disaster may have never taken place. One such tool that will be discussed is the use of model perturbation with Monte Carlo simulation analysis to yield a better understanding of the structural physics that were at play during the disaster.

show abstract

“…Many previous works classified uncertainty for early product and system design (Clarkson & Eckert, 2005; McManus & Hastings, 2006; de Weck et al, 2007). The risk management in early design was also investigated by Van Wie et al (2005), Lough et al (2009), Altabbakh et al (2013), and others. In the context of this work, we consider the underlying uncertainty of choosing new suppliers and new modules (possibly using new technologies) during supplier identification.…”

Section: Proposition For Uncertainty Information Integrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing uncertainty in potential supplier identification

Janković

Kremer

et al. 2014

AIEDAM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As a benefit of modularization of complex systems, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) can choose suppliers in a less constricted way when faced with new or evolving requirements. However, new suppliers usually add uncertainties to the system development. Because suppliers are tightly integrated into the design process in modular design and therefore greatly influence the outcome of the OEM's products, the uncertainty along with requirements satisfaction of the suppliers and their modules should be controlled starting from potential supplier identification. In addition, to better satisfy new requirements, the potential supplier identification should be combined with architecture generation to enable the new technology integration. In this paper, we propose the Architecture & Supplier Identification Tool, which generates all possible architectures and corresponding suppliers based on new requirements through matrix mapping and propagation. Using the Architecture & Supplier Identification Tool, the overall uncertainty and requirements satisfaction of generated architectures can be estimated and controlled. The proposed method aims at providing decision support for early design of complex systems, thereby helping OEMs have an integrated view of suppliers and system architectures in requirements satisfaction and overall uncertainty.

show abstract

Variations in Risk Management Models: A Comparative Study of the Space Shuttle Challenger Disasters

Cited by 19 publications

References 15 publications

Risk assessment of ice dams for water diversion projects based on fuzzy fault trees

Risk assessment of ice dams for water diversion projects based on fuzzy fault trees

The Use of Perturbation with Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Estimate the Reliability of the Space Shuttle Field Joints

Managing uncertainty in potential supplier identification

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About