The Use of Perturbation with Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Estimate the Reliability of the Space Shuttle Field Joints

Abstract

The space shuttle Challenger disaster was brought on by a faulty design and a misunderstanding of reliability. The purpose of this article is to illuminate some shortcomings in the design and interpretations of the systems reliability. It will be shown that the evidence was in place, waiting for discovery long before the disaster, and the tools been available to better evaluate the reliability of the shuttle, the disaster may have never taken place. One such tool that will be discussed is the use of model perturbation with Monte Carlo simulation analysis to yield a better understanding of the structural physics that were at play during the disaster.

Application of scenario-driven hazard analysis in the solid rocket booster

“…By cutting out nearly 40 steps to move these parts cut down a lot of risk factors. Recently, SRB failure analysis has been extensively studied by using Monte Carlo simulation [7,10], Hazard Platform [11], fuzzy FMEA [12], Failure analysis [13], Cause-consequence analysis [14], FMEA [15], Bayesian method [16], Critical safety analysis [17] There are many risks that NASA encountered during the development of the solid rocket booster. This study shows that by implementing a risk assessment process, such as scenario-driven hazard analysis (SDHA), these risks could be decreased.…”