Variation in COVID-19 Outbreaks at U.S. State and County Levels

Messner, Wolfgang; Payson, Sarah E.

doi:10.1101/2020.04.23.20076943

Cited by 6 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…1 The local press and epidemiological research alike have reported local differences in the outbreak. 2 A community's susceptibility to any virus is determined by a variety of factors, inter alia, biological determinants, demographic profiles, and socioeconomic characteristics. 3 These factors vary significantly across the U.S.; for instance, COVID-19 fatalities in New York, an epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., disproportionally affect males and people belonging to older age groups, from Black/African and Hispanic ethnicities, and with certain comorbidities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Contextual Factors on the Initial Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak across U.S. Counties

Messner¹,

Payson²

2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background. This study examines the influence of contextual factors on the initial phases of the COVID-19 outbreak across U.S. counties. Methods. Contextual factors are simultaneously tested at the county-and state-level with a multilevel linear model using full maximum likelihood. Results. The variation between states is substantial and significant (ICC = 0.243, u0 = 4.50E-04, p < 0.001). At the state-level, the cultural value of collectivism is positively associated with the outbreak rate. At the county-level, the racial and ethnic composition contributes to outbreak differences, affecting Black/African and Asian Americans most. Counties with a higher median age have a stronger outbreak, as do counties with more people below the age of 18. Higher income, education, and personal health are generally associated with a lower outbreak. Obesity is negatively related to the outbreak, in agreement with the value expectancy concepts of the health belief model. Smoking is also negatively related, but only directionally informative. Air pollution is another significant contributor to the outbreak, but population density does not give statistical significance. Conclusions. Because of a high variation in contextual factors, policy makers need to target pandemic responses to the smallest subdivision possible, so that countermeasures can be implemented effectively.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Contextual Factors on the Initial Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak across U.S. Counties

Messner¹,

Payson²

2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The local press and epidemiological research alike have reported local differences in the outbreak. 2 A community's susceptibility to any virus is determined by a variety of factors, inter alia, biological determinants, demographic profiles, and socioeconomic characteristics. 3 These factors vary significantly across the U.S.; for instance, COVID-19 fatalities in New York, an epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., disproportionally affect males and people belonging to older age groups, from Black/African and Hispanic ethnicities, and with certain comorbidities.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, we note that contextual factors influence the COVID-19 outbreak. Because significant variations in the outbreak exist between states and counties within a state (see Figures 1 and 2), 2 we recommend policy makers to look at pandemics from the smallest subdivision possible for effective implementation of countermeasures and provision of critical resources. Second, we develop an understanding of how regional cultural differences relate to outbreak variations, driven by specific psychological functioning of individuals and the enduring effects of such differences on political processes, governmental institutions, and public policies.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Influence of Contextual Factors on the Initial Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak across U.S. Counties

Messner

Payson

2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objectives.To examine the influence of county-and state-level characteristics on the initial phases of the COVID-19 outbreak across U.S. counties up to April 14, 2020. Methods. We used a statistical exponential growth model for the outbreak. Contextual factors at county-and state-level were simultaneously tested with a multilevel linear model. All data was publicly available. Results. Collectivism was positively associated with the outbreak rate. The racial and ethnic composition of counties contributed to outbreak differences, affecting Black/African and Asian Americans most. Counties with a higher median age had a stronger outbreak, as did counties with more people below the age of 18. Higher income, education, and personal health were generally associated with a lower outbreak. Obesity was negatively related to the outbreak. Smoking was negatively related, but only directionally informative. Air pollution was another significant contributor to the outbreak, but population density did not give statistical significance. Conclusions. Because of high intrastate and intercounty variation in contextual factors, policy makers need to target pandemic responses to the smallest subdivision possible, so that countermeasures can be implemented effectively.

show abstract

“…While some studies have tracked regional differences in COVID-19 outcomes (e.g., cases, deaths), 5 fewer have examined regional differences in physical distancing behaviors over time. This is a notable omission because physical distancing trends are predictive of later COVID-19 outcomes, 6 and access to physical distancing may be structurally constrained by U.S. region.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

U.S. Regional Disparities in Physical Distancing: Evaluating Racial and Socioeconomic Divides During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Zang¹,

West²,

Kim³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ObjectiveTo examine regional variation in physical distancing trends over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to investigate inequalities within regions by race and socioeconomic status (SES).MethodsRace and SES information from the American Community Survey were matched with location data from mobile device location pings at the Census block group level. We present trends in the proportion of residents staying at home by Census region, race, and SES from February-August, 2020.ResultsFrom March-August, the stay-at-home proportion was highest in the Northeast (0.23-0.31) and lowest in the South (0.22-0.28). Nationally, the stay-at-home proportion was higher in block groups with a higher percentage of Blacks, likely because Blacks disproportionately live in urban areas, where stay-at-home rates are higher. Physical distancing was higher among block groups that are wealthier, more educated, or contain the lowest proportion of frontline workers.ConclusionsDisparities in physical distancing behaviors exist across U.S. regions, with a pronounced Southern and rural disadvantage. Results from this study can be used to guide planning and policy recommendations related to COVID-19 mitigation.

show abstract

Variation in COVID-19 Outbreaks at U.S. State and County Levels

Cited by 6 publications

References 12 publications

The Influence of Contextual Factors on the Initial Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak across U.S. Counties

The Influence of Contextual Factors on the Initial Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak across U.S. Counties

The Influence of Contextual Factors on the Initial Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak across U.S. Counties

U.S. Regional Disparities in Physical Distancing: Evaluating Racial and Socioeconomic Divides During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About