Validating Famine Early Warning Systems Network projections of food security in Africa, 2009–2020

Backer, David; Billing, Trey

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100510

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 9 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In 2018 more than 26 percent of the world's population experienced food insecurity (Backer & Billing, 2021). On the other hand, the debate about farmers selling their own crops, then buying food is still going on (Mehraban & Ickowitz, 2021).…”

Section: Food Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Revitalization of Food Barns to Support Community and National Food Security

Wulansari

Rasidin

Witro

2021

j. ekonomi & kebijak. publik

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

After implementing the green revolution policy and the existence of the National Logistics Agency (Bulog) as an institution whose role is to maintain food stability, the people’s food barns have lost their existence. The impact of the decline in the existence of community food barns, in the long run, causes food instability in Indonesia. This is due to several factors, including the conversion of agricultural land into industrial land, the use of inorganic fertilizers which causes soil fertility to decline resulting in reduced crop yields, Bulog’s transfer of function from a government entity to a state-owned enterprise/Perum, and an increase in demand for food caused by a surge in population that is not comparable to the existing food supply. This paper aims to dig deeper about strengthening food security through the modernization of food barns departing from the Indonesian people’s local wisdom and the extent to which the modernization of food barns can be a solution in overcoming food insecurity due to not achieving food security. This paper uses descriptive qualitative research methods based on literature data, discussing alternative concepts to revitalize community food barns to maintain community and national food security stability. The concept being offered is to modernize community food granaries in terms of both management of stored foodstuffs and managerial aspects of community food storage management. Besides, it is necessary to develop cooperation to synergize between several food barns that are close to the community so that the working area coverage becomes wider.Keywords: management modernization, community food storage, food securityAbstrakPasca diterapkannya kebijakan revolusi hijau serta keberadaan Badan Urusan Logistik (Bulog) sebagai lembaga yang berperan menjaga kestabilan pangan, lumbung pangan masyarakat telah kehilangan eksistensinya. Dampak dari berkurangnya eksistensi lumbung pangan masyarakat tersebut dalam jangka panjang justru menyebabkan ketidakstabilan pangan di Indonesia. Hal ini disebabkan oleh beberapa faktor, di antaranya alih fungsi lahan pertanian menjadi lahan industri, penggunaan pupuk anorganik yang menyebabkan kesuburan lahan menurun sehingga menyebabkan hasil panen berkurang, terjadinya alih fungsi Bulog dari lembaga pemerintah menjadi BUMN/Perum, dan terjadinya peningkatan permintaan pangan yang disebabkan oleh peningkatan penduduk yang tidak sebanding dengan persediaan pangan yang ada. Tulisan ini bertujuan menggali lebih dalam tentang penguatan ketahanan pangan melalui modernisasi lumbung pangan yang bertolak dari kearifan lokal masyarakat Indonesia dan sejauh mana modernisasi lumbung pangan dapat menjadi solusi dalam mengatasi rawan pangan akibat belum tercapainya ketahanan pangan. Tulisan ini menggunakan metode penelitian kualitatif deskriptif berbasis data literatur, membahas alternatif konsep untuk merevitalisasi lumbung pangan masyarakat dalam upaya menjaga kestabilan ketahanan pangan masyarakat dan nasional. Konsep yang ditawarkan adalah memodernisasi lumbung pangan masyarakat baik dari segi pengelolaan bahan pangan yang disimpan, maupun aspek manajerial pengelolaan lumbung pangan masyarakat. Selain itu, perlu pengembangan kerja sama untuk bersinergi antar beberapa lumbung pangan masyarakat yang berdekatan dengan masyarakat sehingga cakupan wilayah kerjanya menjadi lebih luas.Kata kunci: modernisasi pengelolaan, lumbung pangan masyarakat, ketahanan pangan

show abstract

Section: Food Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Revitalization of Food Barns to Support Community and National Food Security

Wulansari

Rasidin

Witro

2021

j. ekonomi & kebijak. publik

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the number of undernourished increased from 624 million people in 2014 to 688 million in 2019 (1). There is considerable evidence that quickly responding to emerging risks of food insecurity saves lives and lowers humanitarian costs (2), which leads aid agencies to resort to early warning systems to decide when and where to deploy emergency relief (3). While risk factors are well-established (4)(5)(6)(7), ranging from conflicts to pests, weather shocks, and migration, delayed or infrequent measurements of these factors typically impede early warning systems' ability to promptly anticipate food crises (8).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting food crises using news streams

2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Anticipating food crisis outbreaks is crucial to efficiently allocate emergency relief and reduce human suffering. However, existing predictive models rely on risk measures that are often delayed, outdated, or incomplete. Using the text of 11.2 million news articles focused on food-insecure countries and published between 1980 and 2020, we leverage recent advances in deep learning to extract high-frequency precursors to food crises that are both interpretable and validated by traditional risk indicators. We demonstrate that over the period from July 2009 to July 2020 and across 21 food-insecure countries, news indicators substantially improve the district-level predictions of food insecurity up to 12 months ahead relative to baseline models that do not include text information. These results could have profound implications on how humanitarian aid gets allocated and open previously unexplored avenues for machine learning to improve decision-making in data-scarce environments.

show abstract

“…The main difference with IPC and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) 44 is that, while these make use of consensus-based expert opinion, our approach is algorithmic and data-driven, and can hence be applied in an automatic fashion. IPC’s and FEWS NET’s projections are essential for humanitarian action, however they require local expertise and considerable time to be developed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the forecastability of food insecurity

Foini

Tizzoni

Martini

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Food insecurity, defined as the lack of physical or economic access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food, remains one of the main challenges included in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Near real-time data on the food insecurity situation collected by international organizations such as the World Food Programme can be crucial to monitor and forecast time trends of insufficient food consumption levels in countries at risk. Here, using food consumption observations in combination with secondary data on conflict, extreme weather events and economic shocks, we build a forecasting model based on gradient boosted regression trees to create predictions on the evolution of insufficient food consumption trends up to 30 days in to the future in 6 countries (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Mali, Nigeria, Syria and Yemen). Results show that the number of available historical observations is a key element for the forecasting model performance. Among the 6 countries studied in this work, for those with the longest food insecurity time series, that is Syria and Yemen, the proposed forecasting model allows to forecast the prevalence of people with insufficient food consumption up to 30 days into the future with higher accuracy than a naive approach based on the last measured prevalence only. The framework developed in this work could provide decision makers with a tool to assess how the food insecurity situation will evolve in the near future in countries at risk. Results clearly point to the added value of continuous near real-time data collection at sub-national level.

show abstract

Validating Famine Early Warning Systems Network projections of food security in Africa, 2009–2020

Cited by 14 publications

References 9 publications

Revitalization of Food Barns to Support Community and National Food Security

Revitalization of Food Barns to Support Community and National Food Security

Predicting food crises using news streams

On the forecastability of food insecurity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About