We describe our experiences in using an open domain question answering model (Chen et al., 2017) to evaluate an out-of-domain QA task of assisting in analyzing privacy policies of companies. Specifically, Relevant CI Parameters Extractor (RECIPE) seeks to answer questions posed by the theory of contextual integrity (CI) regarding the information flows described in the privacy statements. These questions have a simple syntactic structure and the answers are factoids or descriptive in nature. The model achieved an F1 score of 72.33, but we noticed that combining the results of this model with a neural dependency parser based approach yields a significantly higher F1 score of 92.35 compared to manual annotations. This indicates that future work which incorporates signals from parsing like NLP tasks more explicitly can generalize better on out-of-domain tasks.
We propose a new framework to uncover the relationship between news events and real world phenomena. We present the Predictive Causal Graph (PCG) which allows to detect latent relationships between events mentioned in news streams. This graph is constructed by measuring how the occurrence of a word in the news influences the occurrence of another (set of) word(s) in the future. We show that PCG can be used to extract latent features from news streams, outperforming other graph-based methods in prediction error of 10 stock price time series for 12 months. We then extended PCG to be applicable for longer time windows by allowing time-varying factors, leading to stock price prediction error rates between 1.5% and 5% for about 4 years. We then manually validated PCG, finding that 67% of the causation semantic frame arguments present in the news corpus were directly connected in the PCG, the remaining being connected through a semantically relevant intermediate node.
Developing robust NLP models that perform well on many, even small, slices of data is a significant but important challenge, with implications from fairness to general reliability. To this end, recent research has explored how models rely on spurious correlations, and how counterfactual data augmentation (CDA) can mitigate such issues. In this paper we study how and why modeling counterfactuals over multiple attributes can go significantly further in improving model performance. We propose RDI, a context-aware methodology which takes into account the impact of secondary attributes on the model's predictions and increases sensitivity for secondary attributes over reweighted counterfactually augmented data. By implementing RDI in the context of toxicity detection, we find that accounting for secondary attributes can significantly improve robustness, with improvements in sliced accuracy on the original dataset up to 7% compared to existing robustness methods. We also demonstrate that RDI generalizes to the coreference resolution task and provide guidelines to extend this to other tasks.
Anticipating food crisis outbreaks is crucial to efficiently allocate emergency relief and reduce human suffering. However, existing predictive models rely on risk measures that are often delayed, outdated, or incomplete. Using the text of 11.2 million news articles focused on food-insecure countries and published between 1980 and 2020, we leverage recent advances in deep learning to extract high-frequency precursors to food crises that are both interpretable and validated by traditional risk indicators. We demonstrate that over the period from July 2009 to July 2020 and across 21 food-insecure countries, news indicators substantially improve the district-level predictions of food insecurity up to 12 months ahead relative to baseline models that do not include text information. These results could have profound implications on how humanitarian aid gets allocated and open previously unexplored avenues for machine learning to improve decision-making in data-scarce environments.
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