Using real project schedule data to compare earned schedule and earned duration management project time forecasting capabilities

Andrade, Paulo André de; Martens, Annelies; Vanhoucke, Mario

doi:10.1016/j.autcon.2018.11.030

Cited by 52 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Another modification to EVM is Earned Duration Management. The main indicators of this method are based on measurement of Total Planned Duration (TPD), Total Earned Duration (TED), and Earned Duration (ED) [7]. A recent study proposed, utilizing this approach, monitoring a project against the plan with use of statistical control charts in which the project performance indicators are plotted over time.…”

Section: Earned Value Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Control of construction projects using the Earned Value Method - case study

Araszkiewicz

Bochenek

2019

Open Engineering

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Planning, controlling, monitoring progress are key management functions for effective implementation of construction projects. Commonly used instruments enabling performance of these functions include schedules and budgets, often in the form of a cost estimate. They are created at the initial planning stage to monitor and control cost and time deviations. Moreover, popular monitoring techniques are, for example, observation of milestones and comparative analysis of actual versus planned costs. This article presents a work progress control tool - the Earned Value Method (EVM) - which, despite its benefits, remains relatively unused in construction projects. The impact of the planning phase on the results obtained during the monitoring and control phase when utilizing EVM is discussed. This case study provides practical examples of using EVM in the implementation of construction projects and with the use of computer software. The novelty of the article results from the introduction of additional sensitivity analysis illustrating the impact of factors, such as an increase in costs or a change in delivery dates to the course of deviation curves. Use of sensitivity analysis in relation to the results of the CPI and SPI calculations affords combining control of costs and time with risk monitoring in the project. The findings reveal significant benefits in using EVM to implement construction projects but also highlight some important limitations.

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Section: Earned Value Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Control of construction projects using the Earned Value Method - case study

Araszkiewicz

Bochenek

2019

Open Engineering

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“…An extension of Earned Value Method is the addition of an element related to Earned Duration Management. This method introduces additional measures that have not yet been used in the classical Earned Value Method, such as the Duration Performance Index (DPI), Earned Duration Index (EDI) and schedule compliance (c) [32].…”

Section: Literature Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology of Planning the Course of the Cumulative Cost Curve in Construction Projects

Konior

Szóstak

2020

Sustainability

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Appropriate planning and effective monitoring of the execution of construction projects is important with regard to their successful sustainment of implementation. Time and cost are key elements that determine the success or failure of construction projects. The obtaining of a rational S-curve course before the start of a construction project that reflects reality is important for all the participants involved in implementing an investment task. The article proposes an original methodology for planning the course of the cumulative cost curve in construction projects. It uses a method of shaping the S-curve, which is well-known in both literature and practical approaches. On the basis of the authors' own research carried out in a homogeneous research group of hotel facilities, the areas of the curve for the correct planning of costs in construction projects were designated, which determine the boundaries of the predicted costs accumulated over time. The data for the development of the authors' research methodology is the result of the authors' own experience and professional work. The authors carried out Bank Investment Supervision in the years 2006-2019 on behalf of the banks that grant investment loans for non-public contracts. Knowing the total cost and duration of the planned construction project, which were determined on the basis of project documentation, cost estimates, and also their own database regarding planned and completed deadlines and budgets of similar investments, 6th degree polynomials of the real costs of the construction works were determined. This approach enabled the correct planning of costs over time and the determination of planned monthly amounts of construction works to be executed.

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“…Batselier and Vanhoucke (2015a) have constructed a large and diverse database of empirical project data that can be used to validate project control methodologies in a real-life setting. This database contains more than 100 projects for which the baseline schedule, risk analysis and project control information is documented and has been used in several studies on project control and project forecasting (Martens and Vanhoucke 2018;Batselier and Vanhoucke 2015b;Colin and Vanhoucke 2016;de Andrade et al 2019). However, in order to evaluate the performance of the proposed EAC(t)-CA and EDAC-CA forecasting techniques, the corrective actions that are taken during progress should be registered.…”

Section: Data Collection and Documentationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To overcome this issue, Earned Duration Management (EDM, Khamooshi and Golafshani (2014)) has been introduced as a completely time-based adaptation of EVM. Recently, several studies have used EDM rather than EVM as a basis for project time forecasting (Khamooshi and Abdi 2016;de Andrade et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Corrective Actions in Project Time Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing

Martens

Vanhoucke

2020

J. Manage. Eng.

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Earned Value Management (EVM) and Earned Duration Management (EDM) are established methodologies to monitor the project performance during execution. These methods serve as a basis to forecast the final project duration and/or project cost. The aim of this paper is to improve the accuracy of project time forecasting by extending exponential smoothing for project time forecasting using EVM and EDM with the integration of corrective actions that are taken during project progress. In order to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of this approach, eight projects conducted in recent years have been followed up in real-time. Based on the nature of the observed corrective actions, six distinct categories of corrective actions are identified. The empirical experiment showed that explicitly integrating the occurrence of corrective actions into the forecasting process improves the forecasting accuracy of traditional forecasting methods and forecasting methods using standard exponential smoothing, especially for the middle and late phases of projects. Consequently, by including corrective actions in the forecasting process, project managers can predict the final project duration more accurately.

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Using real project schedule data to compare earned schedule and earned duration management project time forecasting capabilities

Cited by 52 publications

References 14 publications

Control of construction projects using the Earned Value Method - case study

Control of construction projects using the Earned Value Method - case study

Methodology of Planning the Course of the Cumulative Cost Curve in Construction Projects

Integrating Corrective Actions in Project Time Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing

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