Using past contribution patterns to forecast fundraising outcomes in crowdfunding

Fan-Osuala, Onochie; Zantedeschi, Daniel; Jank, Wolfgang

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.07.003

Cited by 22 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The number of crowdfunding platforms has grown in the past few years. Platforms such as Kickstarter, GoFundMe, and Indiegogo have shown increasing trends in fundraising [ 22 ]. According to AP News, the global crowdfunding market is expected to exceed US $28.77 billion by 2025 [ 57 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to AP News, the global crowdfunding market is expected to exceed US $28.77 billion by 2025 [ 57 ]. The potential for crowdfunding has urged regulatory efforts in the domain, such as the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act [ 22 ]. In addition, many nonprofit businesses and governments are considering crowdfunding as a source for financing community programs aimed at serving the public [ 58 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, many nonprofit businesses and governments are considering crowdfunding as a source for financing community programs aimed at serving the public [ 58 ]. In this regard, crowdfunding analytic tools can offer insights into the design of a successful fundraising campaign [ 22 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the Dimensions of Medical Crowdfunding: A Visual Analytics Approach

Ren¹,

Raghupathi²,

Raghupathi³

2020

J Med Internet Res

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Background Medical crowdfunding has emerged as a growing field for fundraising opportunities. Some environmental trends have driven the emergence of campaigns to raise funds for medical care. These trends include lack of medical insurance, economic backlash following the 2008 financial collapse, and shortcomings of health care regulations. Objective Research regarding crowdfunding campaign use, reasons, and effects on the provision of medical care and individual relationships in health systems is limited. This study aimed to explore the nature and dimensions of the phenomenon of medical crowdfunding using a visual analytics approach and data crawled from the GoFundMe crowdfunding platform in 2019. We aimed to explore and identify the factors that contribute to a successful campaign. Methods This data-driven study used a visual analytics approach. It focused on descriptive analytics to obtain a panoramic insight into medical projects funded through the GoFundMe crowdfunding platform. Results This study highlighted the relevance of positioning the campaign for fundraising. In terms of motivating donors, it appears that people are typically more generous in contributing to campaigns for children rather than those for adults. The results emphasized the differing dynamics that a picture posted in the campaign brings to the potential for medical crowdfunding. In terms of donor’s motivation, the results show that a picture depicting the pediatric patient by himself or herself is the most effective. In addition, a picture depicting the current medical condition of the patient as severe is more effective than one depicting relative normalcy in the condition. This study also drew attention to the optimum length of the title. Finally, an interesting trend in the trajectory of donations is that the average amount of a donation decreases with an increase in the number of donors. This indicates that the first donors tend to be the most generous. Conclusions This study examines the relationship between social media, the characteristics of a campaign, and the potential for fundraising. Its analysis of medical crowdfunding campaigns across the states offers a window into the status of the country’s health care affordability. This study shows the nurturing role that social media can play in the domain of medical crowdfunding. In addition, it discusses the drivers of a successful fundraising campaign with respect to the GoFundMe platform.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the Dimensions of Medical Crowdfunding: A Visual Analytics Approach

Ren¹,

Raghupathi²,

Raghupathi³

2020

J Med Internet Res

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“…FPC analysis has gained popularity for predicting new product adoption (e.g., Fan‐Osuala et al., 2018; Sood et al., 2009). Studies that use FPC for forecasting with PRB report better predictive performance against diffusion curves (Hann et al., 2011) and volume‐based models (Foutz & Jank, 2010; Xiong & Bharadwaj, 2014).…”

Section: Predicting the Market Potential Of Competitors' New Productsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive competitive intelligence with prerelease online search traffic

Schaer

Kourentzes

Fildes

2022

Production and Operations Management

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In today's competitive market environment, it is vital for companies to gain insight about competitors' new product launches. Past studies have demonstrated the predictive value of prerelease online search traffic (PROST) for new product forecasting. Relying on these findings and the public availability of PROST, we investigate its usefulness for estimating sales of competing products. We propose a model for predicting the success of competitors' product launches, based on own past product sales data and competitor's prerelease Google Trends. We find that PROST increases predictive accuracy by more than 18% compared to models that only use internally available sales data and product characteristics of video game sales. We conclude that this inexpensive source of competitive intelligence can be helpful when managing the marketing mix and planning new product releases.

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“…Therefore, project supporters should not only try to attract more visitors but also understand their funding intention, which is predominantly important in increasing the success of crowdfunding as an alternative instrument of financing (Gierczak et al, 2014). With the intention of a better understanding of crowdfunding dynamics and improving campaign success rates on the financing stage of crowdfunding, knowledge of the factors contributing to success in crowdfunding is required (Fan-Osuala et al, 2018). With the increasing number of crowdfunded projects, it is important to understand what drives people to either create or fund these projects (Gerber & Hui, 2013).…”

Section: Literature Review 1crowdfunding Platform Success From Funded Campaignsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Crowdfunding Platform Revenues Using Arima Model

Venslavienė

Stankevičienė

2021

International Scientific Conference „Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering"

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Purpose – In recent years, crowdfunding platforms have become very popular as intermediaries between fundraisers and funders. However, various campaigns published on the platform might be of bad quality or fraudulent, so the crowdfunding platform must be very careful when choosing the right ones. Also, the proper selection depends on the profits of a crowdfunding platform. In most cases, crowdfunding platforms mainly earn money from transaction and administration fees from successful campaigns on their platforms. While it is very hard to select successful cam-paigns, it is possible to analyse already published campaigns and forecast future revenues of crowdfunding platforms. And based on this, to select new projects which might be successful too. The aim of this work is to develop a model to forecast the revenues of crowdfunding platforms. Research methodology – In this research, comparative and statistical analysis will be used, data structuring, modelling and forecasting, performed with the ARIMA model. Findings – Main findings of this research present the three most successful campaign categories from the Kickstarter platform that receives the highest funding. Fees were calculated from those three campaign categories, and revenues for the platform were forecasted using the ARIMA model. Research limitations – Main limitations are that there were used data from a very short period of time. For better results accuracy, a longer period is needed. Practical implications – this research might be of practical use since the forecasts show that the revenues will continue to grow from the successful campaign categories. Consequently, investors should continue to support technology, games and design categories the most. At the same time, crowdfunding platforms should give more attention to these categories when choosing new projects to launch on the platform.

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Using past contribution patterns to forecast fundraising outcomes in crowdfunding

Cited by 22 publications

References 30 publications

Understanding the Dimensions of Medical Crowdfunding: A Visual Analytics Approach

Understanding the Dimensions of Medical Crowdfunding: A Visual Analytics Approach

Predictive competitive intelligence with prerelease online search traffic

Forecasting Crowdfunding Platform Revenues Using Arima Model

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