Using Mathematical Transmission Modelling to Investigate Drivers of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Seasonality in Children in the Philippines

Paynter, Stuart; Yakob, Laith; Simões, Eric A F; Lucero, Marilla; Tallo, Veronica; Nohynek, Hanna; Ware, Robert S.; Weinstein, Philip; Williams, Gail M.; Sly, Peter D.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0090094

Cited by 34 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 55 publications

(89 reference statements)

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“…This four to six week lag is consistent with the results of mathematical modelling of RSV transmission, which predicts that environmental drivers of RSV seasonality act about 1–2 months before the peak in RSV incidence 11, 12 . If rainfall is driving RSV transmission in these settings, the shorter lag in Cairns could be due to the more intense seasonal rainfall in Cairns: mathematical modelling predicts a shorter lag following a stronger forcing of transmission 12 . The results of our study show that the seasonality of RSV in North Queensland is similar to that of several nearby tropical settings, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand 3,13,14 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

“…The seasonal peak in RSV incidence in Cairns and Townsville occurs in the latter part of the rainy season, following four to six weeks after peak rainfall. This four to six week lag is consistent with the results of mathematical modelling of RSV transmission, which predicts that environmental drivers of RSV seasonality act about 1–2 months before the peak in RSV incidence 11, 12 . If rainfall is driving RSV transmission in these settings, the shorter lag in Cairns could be due to the more intense seasonal rainfall in Cairns: mathematical modelling predicts a shorter lag following a stronger forcing of transmission 12 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

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Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in tropical Australia

Paynter

Ware

Sly

et al. 2015

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health

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Objective: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is most common during the rainy season in a number of low-to middle-income tropical settings, a pattern driven by seasonal changes in climate and nutrition. We investigated the seasonality of RSV in the high-income tropical setting of North Queensland, Australia. Methods:We used RSV hospital admissions data from Cairns and Townsville to assess the seasonality of RSV. We examined the seasonal scale associations between selected meteorological exposures and RSV admissions using cross-correlation of weekly data. Results:In both Cairns and Townsville, RSV admissions were highest in the latter half of the rainy season. In Cairns, RSV admissions were most strongly correlated with rainfall four weeks previously. In Townsville, RSV admissions were most strongly correlated with rainfall six weeks previously. Conclusions:The seasonality of RSV in the tropical setting of North Queensland appears to be driven by seasonal variations in rainfall. Further research is needed to assess the impact of climate on RSV incidence in the tropics.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in tropical Australia

Paynter

Ware

Sly

et al. 2015

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health

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“…Second, precipitation showed an inverse relationship with RSV activity, a finding consistent with those in tropical Kolkata, India [42]. However, this finding is in contrast to those reported in tropical Southeast Asia [37, 40, 43] and Brazil [44]. …”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical–Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 –2012

et al. 2016

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IntroductionThe seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined.Materials and MethodsWe investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model.ResultsAt all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas.ConclusionsAnnual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for determining their effect on the seasonality of influenza and RSV.

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“…Já no que tange ao dados associados à precipitação pluvial não houve relação com as hospitalizações no município de Rondonópolis (MT), e, portanto, estes casos não podem ser associados a este fator ambiental neste local de estudo. Em contraposição com os resultados encontrados nesta pesquisa, Paynter et al (2014) utilizaram um modelo matemático para mostrar que a sazonalidade da taxa de transmissão do RSV em crianças com IRA em ambulatórios e em hospitais nas Filipinas estava associada a precipitação.…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

Influence of variable climate in hospital for pneumonia in children under five years in Rondonópolis-MT

Santos¹,

Azevedo²,

Olinda³

et al. 2016

Revista Brasileira De Geografia Física

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A B S T R A C TAcute respiratory infections are the main cause of consultation and hospitalization of children under five years, and the pneumonia one of the leading causes of death. The objective of this research was to analyze the influence of climate variables in hospitalization for pneumonia in children under five years in Rondonópolis-MT, from 1999 to 2014 cross-sectional study with quantitative and descriptive approach, with meteorological data from the database for teaching and research and information department of the unified health system.

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Using Mathematical Transmission Modelling to Investigate Drivers of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Seasonality in Children in the Philippines

Cited by 34 publications

References 55 publications

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in tropical Australia

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in tropical Australia

Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical–Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 –2012

Influence of variable climate in hospital for pneumonia in children under five years in Rondonópolis-MT

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