Using Gis in the Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Triggered Landslide Hazards

Mankelow, J.M.; Murphy, William M.

doi:10.1080/13632469809350336

Cited by 46 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…4) was used as a basis for regression analysis. We adopted Jibson's model considering: (a) this model has a quite simple form and proved to be more effective than the first formulation of the same author Jibson (1993) in that the logarithmic dependence from critical acceleration makes the estimation more stable, (b) the fact that they have been used in various contexts to assess and map regional seismic landslide hazards (e.g., Mankelow and Murphy 1998;Keefer 2000, 2001;Jibson et al 2000;Capolongo et al 2002;Refice and Capolongo 2002;Murphy and Mankelow 2004;Mahdavifar et al 2008).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacement for Zagros Mountain region (Iran)

et al. 2011

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Earthquake-induced landslides are responsible worldwide for significant socioeconomic losses and historically have a prominent position in the list of natural hazards affecting the Iran plateau. As a step toward the development of tools for the assessment and the management of this kind of hazard at regional scale, an empirical estimator of coseismic displacements along potential sliding surfaces was obtained through a regression analysis for the Zagros region, a mountainous Iranian region subjected to earthquake-induced landslides. This estimator, based on the Newmark’s model, allows to evaluate the expected permanent displacement (named ‘‘Newmark displacement’’) induced by seismic shaking of defined energy on potential sliding surface characterized by a given critical acceleration. To produce regression models for Newmark displacement estimators, a data set was constructed for different critical acceleration values on the basis of 108 accelerometric recordings from 80 Iranian earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 3.6 and 7. The empirical estimator has a general form, proposed by Jibson (Eng Geol 91:209–218, 2007), relating Newmark displacement to Arias intensity (as parameter representing the energy of the seismic forces) and to critical acceleration (as parameter representing the dynamic shear resistance of the sliding mass). As an example of application, this relation was employed to provide a basic document for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment at regional scale, according to a method proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:557–569, 2003), applied to the whole Iranian territory, including Zagros region. This method consists in evaluating the shear resistance required to slopes to limit the occurrence of seismically induced failures, on the basis of the Newmark’s model. The obtained results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical accelerations up to *0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacement for Zagros Mountain region (Iran)

et al. 2011

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“…From a survey of recent applications of GIS to slopestability analysis, it is found that most researchers have concentrated on using a statistical method to quantify the relationship between slope failure and influential factors, whereas GIS performs regional data preparation and processing. Very little research has been conducted into the integration of GIS and the deterministic model for slope stability (Carrara 1983(Carrara , 1995Anbalagan 1992;Van Westen 1993, 1998Van Westen and Terlien 1996;Van Westen and others 1997;Mankelow and Mupphy 1998;Aleotti and Chowdhury 1999;Dai and Lee 2001). All slope failures have a 3-D geometry, which varies in space, even along a short distance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Three-dimensional stability evaluation of landslides and a sliding process simulation using a new geographic information systems component

et al. 2003

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In this paper, based on a column-based three-dimensional (3-D) slope-stability analysis model, a new geographic information systems (GIS) grid-based 3-D deterministic model is developed. Assuming the initial slip as the lower part of an ellipsoid, the identification of the 3-D critical slip surface in the 3-D slope-stability analysis is performed by means of a minimization of the 3-D safety factor using the Monte Carlo random simulation. Using this 3-D GIS grid-based model and the GIS data for sliding process simulation, the landslide body will slide directing in the main slip inclination direction until its safety factor is up to 1. All the calculations are implemented by a computational program called 3-DSLOPEGIS, where a GIS component is used to fulfill the GIS spatial analysis function.

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“…In contrast to deterministic analyses, expressing slope instability within a probabilistic or stochastic framework may involve the use of all data over a regional scale, especially geotechnical parameters, being defined as probability density functions (rather than single values). Probabilistic analyses were gaining more attention in hazard assessment of coseismic landslides due to model uncertainties and spatial variabilities of landslide-related parameters (Mankelow and Murphy 1998;Capolongo et al 2002;Del Gaudio and Wasowski 2004). On the basis of deterministic stability modeling, being an infinite slope model, a variety of well-established methods for probabilistic analyses, such as the first-order secondmoment (FOSM) method, the first-order reliability method (FORM), and Monte Carlo simulations, were useful for estimating the reliability of modeling and probabilities of seismically triggered landslides (Nadim et al 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

Wang

et al. 2008

Landslides

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The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.

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Using Gis in the Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Triggered Landslide Hazards

Cited by 46 publications

References 23 publications

A new empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacement for Zagros Mountain region (Iran)

A new empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacement for Zagros Mountain region (Iran)

Three-dimensional stability evaluation of landslides and a sliding process simulation using a new geographic information systems component

Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

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