A new empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacement for Zagros Mountain region (Iran)

Abstract

Earthquake-induced landslides are responsible worldwide for significant socioeconomic losses and historically have a prominent position in the list of natural hazards affecting the Iran plateau. As a step toward the development of tools for the assessment and the management of this kind of hazard at regional scale, an empirical estimator of coseismic displacements along potential sliding surfaces was obtained through a regression analysis for the Zagros region, a mountainous Iranian region subjected to earthquake-induced landslides. This estimator, based on the Newmark’s model, allows to evaluate the expected permanent displacement (named ‘‘Newmark displacement’’) induced by seismic shaking of defined energy on potential sliding surface characterized by a given critical acceleration. To produce regression models for Newmark displacement estimators, a data set was constructed for different critical acceleration values on the basis of 108 accelerometric recordings from 80 Iranian earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 3.6 and 7. The empirical estimator has a general form, proposed by Jibson (Eng Geol 91:209–218, 2007), relating Newmark displacement to Arias intensity (as parameter representing the energy of the seismic forces) and to critical acceleration (as parameter representing the dynamic shear resistance of the sliding mass). As an example of application, this relation was employed to provide a basic document for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment at regional scale, according to a method proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:557–569, 2003), applied to the whole Iranian territory, including Zagros region. This method consists in evaluating the shear resistance required to slopes to limit the occurrence of seismically induced failures, on the basis of the Newmark’s model. The obtained results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical accelerations up to *0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years

Reconstruction of river valley evolution before and after the emplacement of the giant Seymareh rock avalanche (Zagros Mts., Iran)

“…The Zagros Range globally provides one of the most spectacular examples of landscape evolution in response to active tectonics (Bourne and Twidale, 2011) because its drainage network clearly adapted to the growth of the thrust-fold structures (Ramsey et al, 2008) and to the erodibility of the outcropping formations (Oberlander, 1985). Oberlander (1968) suggested that the drainage network in the NW Zagros was superimposed from structurally conformable younger horizons.…”

مدل نیمه تحلیلی برای پیش بینی تغییرمکان لرزه یی شیب ها بر مبنای زلزله های ایران

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Coseismic landslide susceptibility assessment using geographic information system

“…Some statistical analysis based on the Newmark's model result in a new equation and attenuation to assess coseismic landslide susceptibility (Romeo 2000;Jibson 2007;Jian et al 2010;Rajabi et al 2011). Other statistical methods based on the actual coseismic landslide occurrences have also been developed by Song et al 2012and Umar et al 2014.…”