Using fuzzy cognitive maps to describe current system dynamics and develop land cover scenarios: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract

In this study we developed a methodology to identify and quantify the relationships among determinants of land cover change using a regional case study in the Brazilian Amazon. The method is based on the application of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), a semi-quantitative tool that provides a structured assessment of key feedbacks in scenario analysis. Novel to the application of FCMs is the use of spatial data-sets as the main input to build a cognitive map. Identification of interactions between land cover determinants and strengths is based on an empirical analysis of spatially explicit data and literature review. Expert knowledge is adopted to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the method. Potential pitfalls, such as spatial autocorrelation and scale issues, identified are intrinsic to the empirical data analysis. The outputs of the resulting FCMs are compared to the outputs of spatially explicit models under similar scenarios of change. The proposed method is said to be robust and reproducible when compared with participatory approaches, and it can endorse the consistency between demand and allocation in scenario analysis to be used in spatially explicit models.

Mapping future changes in livelihood security and environmental sustainability based on perceptions of small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon

“…The growing understanding of the relationships between deforestation and the complex web of drivers is essential to support effective policy and decision-making processes, contributing toward a more balanced interaction between forest cover and local people's livelihoods. Although the current toolbox of methods has proved successful in increasing the understanding of these relationships, methods that attempt to analyze human-environment interactions from the reality perceived by local stakeholders have been scarce in Amazonian studies (Posey 1996, Muchagata and Brown 2000, Humphries and Kainer 2006, Soler et al 2012. However, understanding how stakeholders perceive their own situation could be essential in understanding their actions.…”

“…By involving causeeffect relations and feedback mechanisms (Kosko 1986), fuzzy cognitive mapping can be used to uncover present realities that can be used to evaluate the effect of future livelihood and forest cover changes. In this context, it has been used as a semiquantitative tool to indicate future changes, taking account of stakeholders' current perceptions and existing scenarios (Kok 2009, Soler et al 2012. Moreover, lately studies have indicated it as a potential tool to capture the complex dynamics of deforestation (Kok 2009, Soler et al 2012, Wulms 2012 and also to analyze the functioning of different livelihoods and the vulnerability of these livelihoods to external changes (Murungweni et al 2011).…”

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

“…In ecosystem management, the first large-scale ecological application of FCM was published by Hobbs et al (2002). Since then FCM has been applied to address various ecosystem management objectives including lake management (Hobbs et al 2002, Özesmi andÖzesmi 2003), water resources conflict resolution (Giordano et al 2005), agro-ecosystem management (Rajaram and Das 2010), species management (Dexter et al 2012), and forest management (Mendoza and Prabhu 2006, Soler et al 2012. More recent studies in environmental management have used FCM to Ecology and Society 21(4): 18 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/iss4/art18/ address questions of livelihood vulnerability to hazards (Murungweni et al 2011), knowledge on structure and function of social-ecological systems (Gray et al 2012), ways to support adaptive environmental management (Gray et al 2013), climate change impacts and adaptation planning (Reckien 2014), and community disaster planning and social learning (Henly-Shepard et al 2015).…”

Europe: the paradox of landscape change : A case-study based contribution to the understanding of landscape transitions

“…The experts provided their insights on the drivers of change, the relationships between those drivers as well as their relative importance. By ranking the drivers of change, insight is gained in the relative importance of different drivers and regional variation in landscape change processes (Soler et al 2011). The credibility of the results of the workshop are very much dependent on the number and 'quality' of the participants.…”

“…to analyse the dynamics of deforestation processes (Kok 2009) in relation to securing livelihoods (Diniz et al 2015), understanding the development of a biobased economy (Penn et al 2013), and the development of participatory environmental plans and resettlement of people (Özesmi and Özesmi 2004). The theoretical foundations of FCM have been dealt with in detail in other publications (Jetter and Kok 2014;Kok 2009;Penn et al 2013;Soler et al 2011).…”