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Arts. 2015. Mapping future changes in livelihood security and environmental sustainability based on perceptions of small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon. ABSTRACT. Deforestation is a widely recognized problem in the Brazilian Amazon. Small farmers play a key role in this process in that they earn their livelihood by ranching and farming. Many studies have addressed the link between deforestation and livelihood strategies adopted by small farmers. Most have focused on advanced monitoring systems, simulation models, and GIS approaches to analyze the interaction of both dimensions, i.e., livelihoods and forest cover change. Although the current toolbox of methods has proved successful in increasing our understanding of these interactions, the models and approaches employed do not consider small farmers' perspectives. On the assumption that local small farmers are agents of land-cover change, understanding how they perceive their own situation is essential to elucidate their actions. Our objective is to explore future changes in livelihood security and environmental sustainability as envisaged by local small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon. Previous livelihood cluster analysis of small farmers located in southeast Pará was integrated with fuzzy cognitive mapping to determine present perceptions and to explore future changes, using global scenarios downscaled to the local situation. Overall, system description differs only on details; all results indicate a strong trade-off between livelihood security and environmental sustainability in all livelihood systems, as identified by the small farmers. However, fundamentally different outcomes are obtained from the future analysis, depending on the livelihood strategy cluster. Achieving win-win outcomes does not necessarily imply a positive scenario, especially if small farmers are dependent on income transfers from the government to provide their livelihood.

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has been partially attributed to the establishment of settlement projects. Acknowledging the difficulties in quantifying the rate and patterns of deforestation, the objective of this paper is to determine forest dynamics (deforestation and reforestation) in areas where settlement projects have been established, at multiple levels and using different methods. Using satellite images from 1985 to 2010, a study was conducted in five settlement projects in Pará State, aiming to determine forest dynamics at municipal and settlement levels. At property level, participatory maps were constructed to understand settlers' perception of forest/non-forest areas. The results show that reforestation is the current process in the municipality and in some settlements. Settlers, however, perceive areas with secondary regrowth as potentially fertile cropland and might deforest again in the future. More research is needed to elucidate whether the observed reforestation will lead to a forest transition or is merely a temporary trend.De l'espace et du terrain: les dynamiques déterminantes des forêts au sein des projets de colonies en Amazonie, la région Brésilienne F.H. DINIZ, K. KOK, M.C. HOTT, M.A. HOOGSTRA-KLEIN et B. ARTSLa déforestation de l'Amazonie Brésilienne est en partie attribuée à l'établissement de projets de colonisation. Connaissant les difficultés de quantifier les taux et les modes de déforestation, l'objectif de ce rapport est de déterminer les dynamiques de la forêt (déforestation et reboisement) dans les zones où des projets de campement ont été établis, à de multiples échelles en utilisant différentes méthodes. En analysant des images satellites de 1985 à 2010, une étude fut conduite sur cinq projets d'installation dans l'Etat du Pará, visant à déterminer les dynamiques de la forêt à l'échelle de la municipalité et à l'échelle du campement. A l'échelle individuelle, des cartes construites via la participation des colons furent utilisées afin de comprendre la perception des colons par rapport aux zones forestières et non-forestières. Les résultats montrent que le reboisement est un processus actuel au niveau de la municipalité et sur quelques campements. Cependant, les colons perçoivent les zones de régénération secondaire comme potentiellement fertiles pour la culture et risquent de déforester une nouvelle fois ces zones dans le futur. Ainsi, de plus amples recherches sont nécessaires afin de savoir si le reboisement observé conduira à une forêt de transition écologique ou si celui-ci n'est plutôt qu'une étape temporaire.Desde el espacio hasta el suelo: Identificando las dinámicas de los bosques donde existieron proyectos de desarrollo en la Amazonia Brasilera F.H. DINIZ, K. KOK, M.C. HOTT, M.A. HOOGSTRA-KLEIN y B. ARTSLos proyectos de desarrollo han sido catalogados como responsables, en algún grado, de la deforestación en la Amazonia Brasilera. Conociendo las dificultades ya identificadas por otros autores, en la determinación de las tasas y los patrones de deforestación, po...