Using a process-based model of pre-eruptive seismic patterns to forecast evolving eruptive styles at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia

McCausland, Wendy; Gunawan, Hendra; White, Randall A.; Indrastuti, Novianti; Patria, Cahya; Suparman, Yasa; Putra, Armen; Triastuty, Hetty; Hendrasto, Mochammad

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.04.004

Cited by 38 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Some volcanoes erupt with no or minimal detected pre-eruptive seismicity (e.g., Okmok, Johnson et al, 2010;Fee et al, 2017;Pavlof, Waythomas et al, 2017). However, in general, by tracking increases in the rate, magnitude, and frequency content of earthquakes located near the volcano along with other changes in the character of the seismicity, it is often possible to forecast volcanic eruptions (Minakami, 1961;Shimozuru, 1971;Chouet et al, 1994;Ewert, 2007;McNutt and Nishimura, 2008;White and McCausland, 2016;McCausland et al, 2017). This is accomplished with a network of seismic instruments around a volcano, and AVO has required a minimum of four operating instruments with stable telemetry at a volcano to consider it "seismically monitored" .…”

Section: Monitoring Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Increasingly over the past several years, infrasound arrays have been used to detect atmospheric disturbances that result from volcanic activity (De Angelis et al, 2012;Fee and Matoza, 2013). For our current analysis, however, we evaluate AVO's effectiveness depending on the presence or absence of seismic monitoring, since this is the most likely real-time data stream in place at an Alaska volcano for the longest period of time, and has often proved reliable for forecasting imminent eruptive activity (e.g., Power et al, 1994Power et al, , 1995Power and Lalla, 2010;Ruppert et al, 2011;Buurman et al, 2013;McCausland et al, 2017).…”

Section: Monitoring Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017

et al. 2018

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Section: Monitoring Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Monitoring Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017

et al. 2018

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“…At laboratory volcanoes, the enhanced monitoring and scientific investigations typically enables a greater understanding of magma genesis and transport (e.g., Wanke et al 2019a, b). In near-term crisis assessment the resulting conceptual models provide a means to relate monitoring data trends to magmatic ascent and thereby aid in forecasting (e.g., Power et al 2002, Power et al 2013Sparks 2003;Cashman 2004;Aiuppa et al 2007Aiuppa et al , 2010Iguchi et al 2008;Biggs et al 2009;Neri et al 2009;Werner et al 2013;McCausland et al 2017;Sparks and Cashman 2017;Dzurisin 2018;White and McCausland 2019). In eruptions that span weeks to years and in which seismic, geodetic and gas monitoring data provide insights into the sub-surface magmatic system, and/or when near-real-time sampling can be accomplished in a safe manner (e.g., ash sampling), conceptual models can be revised and used in near-real-time for short-term forecasting and warning (e.g., Gaunt et al 2017).…”

Section: Conceptual Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Volcano observatory best practices (VOBP) workshops - a summary of findings and best-practice recommendations

et al. 2019

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We summarize major findings and best-practice recommendations from three Volcano Observatory Best Practices (VOBP) workshops, which were held in 2011, 2013 and 2016. The workshops brought together representatives from the majority of the world's volcano observatories for the purpose of sharing information on the operation and practice of these institutions and making best practice recommendations. The first workshop focused on eruption forecasting, the second on hazard communication, and the third on long-term hazard assessment. Subsequent VOBP workshops will address additional issues of broad interest to the international volcano observatory community. The objective of VOBP is to develop synergy among volcano hazards programs and their observatories internationally, so as to more rapidly and broadly advance the field of applied volcanology. Each of the workshop summaries presented here include best practice recommendations for consideration by the world's volcano observatories.

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“…Hypocenter determination obtained from calculation of Geiger Adaptive Damping (GAD) method. 3 This method works with the parameters of the arrival time, velocity model and station position station in Cartesian coordinate. Besides, the velocity model obtained from the previous studies.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 The famous volcanoes are Semeru, Guntur, Kelud and Sinabung volcanoes have increased activity recently. [2][3][4][5] Therefore, research in order to prevent volcanics disaster is increasing throughout all volcano activities Gede volcano, one of an active volcano in West Java, Indonesia, placed as the administrative boundary between Bogor, Cianjur, and Sukabumi. Since 1747, seismic activities of Gede volcano recorded until present.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hypocenter Determination and Clustering of Volcano-Tectonic Earthquakes in Gede Volcano 2015

Nugraha

Maryanto

Triastuty³

2017

Jurnal Fisika dan Aplikasinya

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Gede volcano is an active volcano in West Java, Indonesia. Research about determination the volcanotectonic earthquake source positions has given results using volcano-tectonic earthquakes data from January until November 2015. Volcano-tectonic earthquakes contained deep (VT-A) have frequency (maximum amplitude) range 5 -15 Hz. Furthermore, they contain shallow earthquake, VT-B have range 3-5 Hz and LF have range 1-3 Hz. Geiger's Adaptive Damping (GAD) methods used for determining the hypocenter of these volcano-tectonic (VT) events. Hypocenter distribution divided into 4 clusters. Cluster I located in the crater of Gede volcano dominated by VT-B earthquakes their depth range 2 km below MSL to 2 km above MSL including the VT-B swarm. The seismic sources in cluster I indicated dominant due to the volcanic fluid or gas filled in conduit pipes. Cluster II located at the west of Gede volcano caused by Gede-Pangrango fault-line dominated by VT-A earthquakes with depths range 1.5 km below MSL to 700 m above MSL. Cluster III located in the North of Gede volcano dominated by VT-A events there caused by graben fault area with those depths range 7.5 -1.65 km below MSL. Cluster IV located in South West of Gede volcano contained VT-A earthquakes with depth range at 10 km below MSL and VT-B earthquakes this depth 2 km below MSL. Due to magma intrusion filled into fractures of the fault in the West of Gede volcano this shallow magma filling-fractures and degassing in subsurface assumed dominates the volcano-tectonic events from January to November 2015 due to faults extends from North to South occured in the West of Gede volcano.

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Using a process-based model of pre-eruptive seismic patterns to forecast evolving eruptive styles at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia

Cited by 38 publications

References 28 publications

Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017

Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017

Volcano observatory best practices (VOBP) workshops - a summary of findings and best-practice recommendations

Hypocenter Determination and Clustering of Volcano-Tectonic Earthquakes in Gede Volcano 2015

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