Using a multi-hypothesis framework to improve the understanding of flow dynamics during flash floods

Douinot, Audrey; Roux, Hélène; Garambois, Pierre‐André; Dartus, Denis

doi:10.5194/hess-22-5317-2018

Cited by 20 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 67 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For the Ardeche catchment, the good correlations between the LDAS-Monde HU deep and the deep layer moisture simulated with the SSF-DWF model highlights the consistency of this model for this catchment, and it corroborates the results ofDouinot et al (2018) which tend to show that this model is particularly suitable for discharge simulation in shale watershed.…”

supporting

confidence: 79%

A multi-sourced assessment of the spatio-temporal dynamic of soil saturation in the MARINE flash flood model

Eeckman

Roux

Douinot

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The MARINE hydrological model is a distributed model dedicated to flash flood simulation. Recent developments of the MARINE model are exploited in this work: on the one hand, formerly relying on water height, transfers of water through the subsurface now take place in a homogeneous soil column based on the volumetric soil water content (SSF model). On the other hand, the soil column is divided into two layers, which represent respectively the upper soil layer and the deep weathered rocks (SSF-DWF model). The aim of the present work is to assess the performances of these new representations for the simulation of soil saturation during flash flood events. An exploration of the various products available in the literature for soil moisture estimation is performed. The performances of the models are estimated with respect to several soil moisture products, either at the local scale or spatially extended: i) The gridded soil moisture product provided by the operational modeling chain SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU; ii) The gridded soil moisture product provided by the LDAS-Monde assimilation chain, based on the ISBA-a-gs land surface model and assimilating satellite derived data; iii) the upper soil moisture hourly measurements taken from the SMOSMANIA observation network; iv) The Soil Water Index provided by the Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS), derived from Sentinel1/C-band SAR and ASCAT satellite data. The case study is performed over two French Mediterranean catchments impacted by flash flood events over the 2017–2019 period. The local comparison of the MARINE outputs with the SMOSMANIA measurements, as well as the comparison at the basin scale of the MARINE outputs with the gridded LDAS-Monde and CGLS data lead to the same conclusions: both the dynamics and the amplitudes of the soil moisture simulated with the SSF and SSF-DWF models are better correlated with both the SMOSMANIA measurements and the LDAS-Monde data than the outputs of the base model. The opportunity of improving the two-layers model calibration is then discussed. In conclusion, the developments presented for the representation of subsurface flow in the MARINE model enhance the soil moisture simulation during flash floods, with respect to both gridded data and local soil moisture measurements.

show abstract

supporting

confidence: 79%

A multi-sourced assessment of the spatio-temporal dynamic of soil saturation in the MARINE flash flood model

Eeckman

Roux

Douinot

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Large, rapid and unexpected flows exacerbate flood damage. The development and evaluation of the state-of-the-art hydrometeorological forecasting tools is a major issue in the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean experiment (HyMeX; Drobinski et al, 2014). This program aims at addressing the following science questions, amongst others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies for flash-flood forecasting over a catchment of the eastern Pyrenees

Roux

Amengual

Romero

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. This study aims at evaluating the performances of flash-flood forecasts issued from deterministic and ensemble meteorological prognostic systems. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forcing the rainfall-runoff model MARINE dedicated to flash floods. Two distinct ensemble prediction systems accounting for (i) perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions of the meteorological state and (ii) mesoscale model physical parameterizations have been implemented on the Agly catchment of the eastern Pyrenees with three subcatchments exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Different evaluations of the performance of the hydrometeorological strategies have been performed: (i) verification of short-range ensemble prediction systems and corresponding streamflow forecasts, for a better understanding of how forecasts behave; (ii) usual measures derived from a contingency table approach, to test an alert threshold exceedance; and (iii) overall evaluation of the hydrometeorological chain using the continuous rank probability score, for a general quantification of the ensemble performances. Results show that the overall discharge forecast is improved by both ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast. Threshold exceedance detections for flood warning also benefit from large hydrometeorological ensemble spread. There are no substantial differences between both ensemble strategies on these test cases in terms of both the issuance of flood warnings and the overall performances, suggesting that both sources of external-scale uncertainty are important to take into account.

show abstract

“…For instance, some studies exploited a number of very detailed field measurements during severe storm events (Braud et al, 2014;Vannier et al, 2014). Others tested hypotheses using physically distributed models, for instance the MARINE model (Roux et al, 2011;Garambois et al, 2013Garambois et al, , 2015Douinot et al, 2016Douinot et al, , 2018 or the CéVeNnes (VCN) model (Braud et al, 2010;Vannier et al, 2016). A few conceptual distributed models were also considered in this area, such as those implemented into the ATHYS (Atelier Hydrologique Spatialisé) platform (Bouvier and DelClaux, 1996;Laganier et al, 2014;Tramblay et al, 2010).…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchment

Jay-Allemand

Javelle

Gejadze

et al. 2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Calibration of a conceptual distributed model is challenging due to a number of reasons, which include fundamental (model adequacy and identifiability) and algorithmic (e.g., local search vs. global search) issues. The aim of the presented study is to investigate the potential of the variational approach for calibrating a simple continuous hydrological model (GRD; Génie Rural distributed involved in several flash flood modeling applications. This model is defined on a rectangular 1 km2 resolution grid, with three parameters being associated with each cell. The Gardon d'Anduze watershed (543 km2) is chosen as the study benchmark. For this watershed, the discharge observations at five gauging stations, gridded rainfall and potential-evapotranspiration estimates are continuously available for the 2007–2018 period at an hourly time step. In the variational approach one looks for the optimal solution by minimizing the standard quadratic cost function, which penalizes the misfit between the observed and predicted values, under some additional a priori constraints. The cost function gradient is efficiently computed using the adjoint model. In numerical experiments, the benefits of using the distributed against the uniform calibration are measured in terms of the model predictive performance, in temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal validation, both globally and for particular flood events. Overall, distributed calibration shows encouraging results, providing better model predictions and relevant spatial distribution of some parameters. The numerical stability analysis has been performed to understand the impact of different factors on the calibration quality. This analysis indicates the possible directions for future developments, which may include considering a non-Gaussian likelihood and upgrading the model structure.

show abstract

Using a multi-hypothesis framework to improve the understanding of flow dynamics during flash floods

Cited by 20 publications

References 67 publications

A multi-sourced assessment of the spatio-temporal dynamic of soil saturation in the MARINE flash flood model

A multi-sourced assessment of the spatio-temporal dynamic of soil saturation in the MARINE flash flood model

Evaluation of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies for flash-flood forecasting over a catchment of the eastern Pyrenees

On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchment

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About