Use of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to Characterize the Drying Trend in Southwest China from 1982–2012

Li, Xing; He, Bin; Quan, Xingwen; Liao, Ziqi; Bai, Xiaojing

doi:10.3390/rs70810917

Cited by 121 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…For example, Hu and Willson () and Sun et al (), Sun, Chen, Ju, et al () have reported that the impact of ET 0 on drought could be equivalent to or even higher than that from precipitation. Consequently, understanding the spatial and temporal variations in ET 0 is a vital component for comprehensively understanding hydrometeorological changes and is helpful for better monitoring and predicting drought (Beguería, Vicente‐Serrano, Reig, & Latorre, ; Li, He, Quan, Liao, & Bai, ; McEvoy, Huntington, Mejia, & Hobbins, ; Sun et al, ; Sun, Chen, Sun, et al, ; Vicente‐Serrano, Beguería, & Lópezmoreno, ; Zhang et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

Chai

Sun

Chen

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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This study investigates reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends in China from 1960 to 2012 based on the Penman–Monteith equation and gridded meteorological measurements. Under the combined impacts of factors influencing ET0 (i.e., net radiation [RN], mean temperature [TAVE], vapour pressure deficit [VPD], and wind speed [WND]), both seasonal and annual ET0 for the whole China and more than half of the grids decreased over the past 53 years. The attribution analyses suggest that for the whole China, the WND is responsible for annual and seasonal ET0 decreases (excluding summer, where RN is responsible). Across China, the annual cause of WND with the largest spatial extent (43.1% of grids) mainly derives from north of the Changjiang River Basin (CJRB), whereas VPD (RN) as a cause is dispersedly distributed (within and to the south of the CJRB). In summer, RN is dominant in more than half of the grids, but the dominance of VPD and WND accounts for approximately 90% of grids during the remaining seasons. Finally, the correlation coefficients between ET0 and the Atlantic Oscillation (AO), North AO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices with different lead times are calculated. For the whole China, annual and seasonal ET0 always significantly correlate with these indices (excluding the IOD) but with varied lead times. Additionally, near half of the grids show significant and maximum (i.e., the largest one between ET0 and a certain index with a lead time of 0–3 seasons) correlation coefficients of ET0 with PDO in spring and summer, ENSO in autumn, and AO in winter. This study is not only significant for understanding ET0 changes, but it also provides preliminary and fundamental reference information for ET0 prediction.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

Chai

Sun

Chen

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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“…As a result of its unique topography and geographical location, this region is considered to be of great important in research on global climate change. Many studies have reported that Sichuan has experienced a serious drying trend during the past few decades and its natural environment is fragile (Thomas, 2000;Zhai et al, 2005;Qin et al, 2010;Li et al, 2015). Meteorological stations are irregularly spaced in this region and are especially sparse in the mountainous and highland areas, which could lead to spatial inconsistencies and uncertainties in climate studies.…”

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confidence: 99%

Assessment of ECMWF reanalysis data in complex terrain: Can the CERA‐20C and ERA‐Interim data sets replicate the variation in surface air temperatures over Sichuan, China?

Luo

Yang³

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Surface air temperatures (SATs) derived from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA‐Interim and CERA‐20C reanalysis data sets are compared with data from 43 observation stations in Sichuan for 1979–2010. The results show (a) the temperatures from the ERA‐Interim and CERA‐20C data sets are strongly correlated with those from the observation stations, although significant cold biases are seen on both annual and seasonal timescales. (b) The biases in SATs are predominately influenced by the differences between the actual topography and the topography used in the reanalysis models. Larger differences in temperature are observed in the plateau and mountainous regions of Sichuan. We confirmed larger SAT biases at high altitudes by categorizing the elevation into four bands, each with a spacing of 1,000 m. (c) We reduced the biases resulting from elevation by using an elevation correction method with internal lapse rates derived from different reanalysis pressure levels. The annual mean bias was reduced from −2.86 to −0.75°C for the ERA‐Interim data set and from −5.27 to −2.21°C for the CERA‐20C data set. After calibration, the correlation coefficients between the difference in SAT (observed minus reanalysis data) and the difference in elevation (station elevation minus model elevation) decreased from −0.97 and −0.91 to −0.29 and −0.30 for the ERA‐Interim and CERA‐20C data sets, respectively. These significant differences should not be ignored in the application of reanalysis data sets to climate research. The evaluation and calibration of reanalysis data sets are essential before making assessments of regional climate change, especially over regions with complex topography.

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“…The non-normal distribution of atmospheric and hydrological variables makes the classical statistical methods invalid, however, the non-parametric test method is considered as a good tool for trend analysis. The M-K test has the advantage of the independent of data distribution and less sensitive to missing values and thus most commonly used for assessment of trends in different climate and hydrological variables [47].…”

Section: Mann-kendall Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the above advantages, it has been widely used in different countries and regions over the world [8,[44][45][46], showing a good performance on drought analysis. For China, Li et al [47] compared the SPEI and the SPI for drought analysis and indicated that the SPEI could better monitor the drought conditions than SPI in months with significant increase of temperature. Shi et al [48] showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spatial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence in Henan Province.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China

Wang

Hou

Huang

et al. 2019

Water

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Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important food and industrial production area and a frequently drought-affected basin in eastern China. It is necessary to consider the future drought development for reducing the impact of drought disasters. Three global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had) and MIROC5 (MIR), were used to assessment the future drought conditions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), statistical method, Mann-Kendall test, and run theory were carried out to study the variations of drought tendency, frequency, and characteristics and their responses to climate change. The research showed that the three CMIP5 models differ in describing the future seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature in the basin and thus lead to the differences in describing drought trends, frequency, and drought characteristics, such as drought severity, drought duration, and drought intensity. However, the drought trend, frequency, and characteristics in the future are more serious than the history. The drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under the scenario of high concentration of RCP8.5, and the drought trend is larger than that of low concentration of RCP4.5. The lower precipitation and the higher temperature are the main factors affecting the occurrence of drought. All three CMIP5 models show that precipitation would increase in the future, but it could not offset the evapotranspiration loss caused by significant temperature rise. The serious risk of drought in the future is still higher. Considering the uncertainty of climate models for simulation and prediction, attention should be paid to distinguish the effects of different models in the future drought assessment.

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Use of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to Characterize the Drying Trend in Southwest China from 1982–2012

Cited by 121 publications

References 59 publications

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation

Assessment of ECMWF reanalysis data in complex terrain: Can the CERA‐20C and ERA‐Interim data sets replicate the variation in surface air temperatures over Sichuan, China?

Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China

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