Use of the Southern Oscillation in Weather Prediction

Quinn, William H.; Burt, Wayne V.

doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1972)011<0616:uotsoi>2.0.co;2

Cited by 52 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Instead of using air pressure as done by Berlage (1957) or pressure differences as done by Quinn and Burt (1972), Wright (1975) performed an empirical orthogonal function analysis of the pressure anomalies of Cape Town, Bombay, Djakarta, Darwin, Adelaide, Apia, Honolulu and Santiago, and defined the SO-index as the amplitude of the first eigenvector. The SOindex was normalized in order to obtain a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Teleconnections of rainfall anomalies and of the Southern Oscillation over the entire tropics and their seasonal dependence

BEHREND

1987

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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June 19, 1986) ABSTRACT The teleconnections between rainfall anomalies of selected areas within the tropics to each other are investigated with respect to their seasonal dependence, employing a cross correlation analysis technique. They are related to the Southern Oscillation. The magnitude and phase of these rainfall anomalies are computed for a typical El Nifio event using a so-called composite analysis. Rainfall anomalies persist for almost an entire year over the islands of the equatorial Central Pacific, whereas over most areas in and around the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean, they only tend to persist for a season or two. Seasons during which rainfall anomalies are most persistent (in a particular region) are also seasons, during which teleconnections between rainfall anomalies of these regions to each other are strongest. The Southern Oscillation is negative-correlated with the majority of the rainfall anomalies except for those from India, Indonesia, Hawaii and the Northcoast of Venezuela. The rainfall anomalies calculated for a typical El Nifio event fit into this general scheme of teleconnections.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, the following years were defined as El Niiio-years because of the positive SST-and rainfall anomalies existing within the equatorial Pacific: 1899, 1905, 1911, 1918, 1925, 1930, 1941, 1951, 1953, 1957, 1965, 1969, 1972(Wooster and Guillan, 1974Fleer, 1981).…”

Section: Composite Analysis Of the El Niiio Phenomenonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Teleconnections of rainfall anomalies and of the Southern Oscillation over the entire tropics and their seasonal dependence

BEHREND

1987

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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“…The sunspot number in June 1988 was 94. (21,22). Figure 2D clearly shows a discontinuity in the TahitiDuring 1979-198 1, a time of occurrence of two QBO maxima Darwin SO1 in 1976, as might be expected from the foregoing at Samoa, sunspot numbers for all months were greater than discussion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible influence of long-term sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific on global ozone

Komhyr¹,

Oltmans²,

Grass³

et al. 1991

Can. J. Phys.

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A significant negative correlation exists between June–August sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and 15–31 October total ozone values at South Pole, Antarctica. SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific were anomalously warmer by 0.67 °C during 1976–1987 compared with 1962–1975. Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific stratosphere were generally stronger after 1975 than they were before that time. Prior to the early-to-mid 1970s the trend in global ozone was generally upward, but then turned downward. Total ozone at Hawaii and Samoa, which had been decreasing at a rate of about 0.35% yr−1 during 1976–1987, showed recovery to mid-1970s values in 1988–1989 following a drop in SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to low values last observed there prior to 1976. During 15–31 October 1988, total ozone at South Pole, which had decreased from about 280 Dobson units (DU) prior to 1980 to 140 DU in 1987, suddenly recovered to 250 DU, though substantial ozone depletion by heterogeneous photochemical processes involving polar stratospheric clouds was still evident in the South Pole ozone vertical profiles. These observations suggest that the downward trend in ozone observed over the globe in recent years may have been at least partially meteorologically induced, possibly through modulation by the warmer tropical Pacific ocean waters of QBO easterly winds at the equator, of planetary waves in the extratropics, of the interaction of QBO winds and planetary waves, and of Hadley Cell circulation. A cursory analysis of geostrophic wind flow around the Baffin Island low suggests a meteorological influence on the observed downward trend in ozone over North America during the past decade. Because ozone has a lifetime that varies from minutes to hours in the primary ozone production region at high altitudes in the tropical stratosphere to months and years in the low stratosphere, changes in atmospheric dynamics have the potential for not only redistributing ozone over the globe, but also changing global ozone abundance.

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“…The temptation to link it with the disruption to equatorial atmospheric conditions produced by the El Chinchon eruption is strong (Van Dijk et al, 1983) especially as the last out-of-season El Nino occurred after the Mt Agung eruption. Major El Nifio events have occurred in 1891, 1925, 1941, 1957, 1965and 1972and Quinn and Burt (1972 found that in the eastern South Pacific the area averaged precipitation amount varies by a factor as large as 5 to 10. After the much-studied 1972 El Niflo Flohn (1973) wondered whether the simultaneous strong anomalies around the globe, referred to in last year's report (Perry, 1983) were fortuitous coincidences.…”

Section: Global Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent climatic change—is there a signal amongst the noise?

Perry

1984

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment

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Use of the Southern Oscillation in Weather Prediction

Cited by 52 publications

References 4 publications

Teleconnections of rainfall anomalies and of the Southern Oscillation over the entire tropics and their seasonal dependence

Teleconnections of rainfall anomalies and of the Southern Oscillation over the entire tropics and their seasonal dependence

Possible influence of long-term sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific on global ozone

Recent climatic change—is there a signal amongst the noise?

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