Use of the mathematical models to describe egg production of the geese

Abstract

The article presents the results of descriptive modeling of egg production in geese of different genotypes to create a dimorphic population. T. Bridges' model in all groups of birds overestimated the egg-laying rates in the second and fifth months of egg-laying – by 0.41–7.63 % and 4.10–6.64 %, respectively. At the same time, in the fourth month of laying, she underestimated its value – by 4.13–6.91 %. In the middle of egg-laying, i.e., in the third month, this model most accurately described it – deviations of theoretical values from empirical ones were minimal (in the range of 0.37–2.43 %). In general, using the model of T. Bridges, the average percentage of deviations of the actual egg production from the empirical was 2.31– 4.37 %. The highest correspondence of essential indicators with those calculated among the studied groups was found in geese F2 (2.31 %). Using the model of F. Richards, similar trends in the mathematical description of egg-laying were observed. This model overestimated the value of egg production in geese of different genotype groups in the second (1.39–8.88 %) and fifth (5.00–7.43 %) months of egg-laying. In the fourth month, this model underestimated egg production in poultry in the range of 4.13–7.19 %. In general, the average percentage deviation of actual indicators theoretically determined by this model was low and was in the field of 2.47–5.07 %. Comparing the use of models of T. Bridges and F. Richards on geese of one group, we can note the higher efficiency of the first, i.e., higher accuracy of coincidence of actual and theoretical values of monthly egg production. Analysis of the coefficients of the models used among the geese of the studied groups shows that the most incredible exponential growth rate of the theoretical egg-laying curve is characteristic of the descendants of F1 and F2, while the function of T. Bridges is the lowest in the descendants of the third generation in the original breeds. According to the model of T. Bridges, the kinetic rate of increase of the theoretical curve according to the model T. Bridges is highest in birds F3, Rhine breed and created dimorphic geese, and according to the function of F. Richards – in F1, F2 and also in Rhine geese.