Use of Agent-Based Modelling to Validate Hurricane Evacuation Planning

Abstract

Justification for evacuation and evacuation planning is sometimes questioned and there is a need develop approaches which justify the planning and associated expenditure. To this end, it was decided to carry out a pilot evaluation of the impact of a Hurricane Storm surge flooding on Brunswick, GA using a dynamic Agent Based Model that represents people's interactions with a flood and provides estimates of the number of people that are likely to be killed as a result of a flood event, as well as the time that is required for them to evacuate the area at risk. Climate change increase of 3ft in mean sea level would increase the population at risk in Brunswick by 20% for a category 4 hurricane. The modelling shows that for a category 4 hurricane managed evacuation can significantly reduce the number of fatalities.

Agent‐based simulator of dynamic flood‐people interactions

“…More generally, the life safety model (LSM, www.lifesafetymodel.net) has been developed to assess the risk of flooding on people while taking into account dynamic interactions between multiple receptors across different scales. The LSM incorporates interactions between vehicles, via a traffic model, and includes a pedestrian flow model accounting for people movement as they relay warnings to each other (Lumbroso & di Mauro, 2008;Lumbroso et al, 2011;Lumbroso, Simm, Davison, White, & Durden, 2015;Lumbroso & Davison, 2018). Similarly, the LifeSIM model (www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-lifesim) was developed to include an individuals' response to emergency warnings and their interaction with each other and their surroundings, for example, urban layouts and buildings, to estimate fatalities under flood-induced evacuation conditions.…”