US Trade Actions Against China: A Supply Chain Perspective

Walmsley, Terrie; Minor, Peter

doi:10.1177/0015732520920465

Cited by 10 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…These models have been applied successfully to examine economic impacts of health threats, such as influenza pandemics (see, e.g., Dixon et al 2010 , 2020 ; Prager et al 2017 ; Walmsley et al 2020 ). In particular, we use the ImpactECON Supply-Chain Model (Walmsley and Minor 2016 , 2020a ). This Model is adapted from one of the most widely-used CGE models, GTAP (Hertel and Tsigas 1997 ; Corong et al 2017 ), and has the extended capability for examining supply-chain impacts linked to economic activity and policies in the rest of the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States

Walmsley

Rose²,

Wei³

2020

EconDisCliCha

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We present a formal analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., China and the rest of the world. Given the uncertainty regarding the severity and time-path of the infections and related conditions, we examine three scenarios, ranging from a relatively moderate event to a disaster. The study considers a comprehensive list of causal factors affecting the impacts, including: mandatory closures and the gradual re-opening process; decline in workforce due to morbidity, mortality and avoidance behavior; increased demand for health care; decreased demand for public transportation and leisure activities; potential resilience through telework; increased demand for communication services; and increased pent-up demand. We apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, a state-of-the-art economy-wide modeling technique. It traces the broader economic ramifications of individual responses of producers and consumers through supply chains both within and across countries. We project that the net U.S. GDP losses from COVID-19 would range from $3.2 trillion (14.8%) to $4.8 trillion (23.0%) in a 2-year period for the three scenarios. U.S. impacts are estimated to be higher than those for China and the ROW in percentage terms. The major factor affecting the results in all three scenarios is the combination of Mandatory Closures and Partial Reopenings of businesses. These alone would have resulted in a 22.3% to 60.6% decrease in U.S. GDP across the scenarios. Pent-up Demand, generated from the inability to spend during the Closures/Reopenings, is the second most influential factor, significantly offsetting the overall negative impacts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 1 See also Walmsley and Minor ( 2020a , b ) for a detailed explanation of model and data used in this analysis. …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States

Walmsley

Rose²,

Wei³

2020

EconDisCliCha

Self Cite

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“…Walmsley and Minor () produce a version of GTAP that they refer to as a supply chain model. The standard version of GTAP identifies flows of commodity c from source country s to destination country d but then assumes that the source composition of imported c in d is the same for all users.…”

Section: Cge Modelling: the State Of Play And What Has To Be Done To mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Supply Chains: Towards A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Athukorala

Dixon

Rimmer

2018

J of App Econs and Policy

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Economists have analysed GSCs using pure theory, econometrics and input–output calculations. We now need a new type of CGE model to show how GSC trade affects welfare and its distribution between and within nations. The new model must recognise: fragmentation of production; scale economies; intermediate inputs that cross national borders multiple times embodied in products at different stages of completion; and decision‐making by global agents. We describe a prototype that incorporates these features and gives interpretable results not attainable with a standard CGE model. We discuss steps to move from the prototype to a policy‐relevant model.

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“…Several researchers utilized computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to address this subject. Walmsley and Minor () examined what might happen if NAFTA ended and found that trade, investment, and real gross domestic product (GDP) would decline in each member country. Robinson, Gornostay, de Bolle, Joseph, and Korb () explored the possible employment effects of a U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA and concluded that about 187,000 export‐related U.S. jobs would be lost, with agriculture being one of the most adversely affected sectors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects on intraregional agricultural trade of ending NAFTA's market access provisions

Beckman

Zahniser

2018

Canadian J Agri Economics

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This paper explores the possible effects on agriculture of ending the market access provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This paper considers two hypothetical scenarios: one revolving around a fallback to most-favorednation (MFN) tariff rates and the other considering the additional effect of increased transaction costs in intraregional trade. Results from a computable general equilibrium model indicate that applying MFN tariff rates to U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade would lead to a 14.43% reduction in these trade flows, while a scenario also featuring higher transaction costs would bring an even larger reduction (21.25%). In both scenarios, almost every agricultural product experiences a reduction in bilateral trade, with U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico undergoing some of the largest proportionate decreases. Many sectors within North American agriculture would have lower output, including fruit and nuts, vegetables, oilseeds and vegetable oils, and processed foods in Canada; fruit, vegetables, and beef in Mexico; and poultry meat, pork, beef, and dairy products in the United States.

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US Trade Actions Against China: A Supply Chain Perspective

Cited by 10 publications

References 6 publications

The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States

The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States

Global Supply Chains: Towards A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

The effects on intraregional agricultural trade of ending NAFTA's market access provisions

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