Urbanization Exacerbated Rainfall Over European Suburbs Under a Warming Climate

Yang, Long; Ni, Guangheng; Tian, Fuqiang; Niyogi, Dev

doi:10.1029/2021gl095987

“…These parameterization schemes can substantially affect the temperature and moisture profiles in the lower troposphere (Yu et al, 2018). The selected options have been confirmed by many studies to perform well on heavy rainfall simulation (e.g., Wang et al, 2013;Yang et al, 2021). Most of these physical schemes used were identical for the two nests.…”

Section: Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…Theoretical and observational evidence shows that global warming should be responsible for the more frequent occurrence of ER events (IPCC, 2021). The complex topography and urbanization are also important factors causing ER events by changing the dynamic and thermal effects in the land surface and planetary boundary layer processes (Chen et al., 2022; Goswami et al., 2010; Shastri et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2013; Yang et al., 2021; Yu & Liu, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the Impacts of Topography and Urbanization on an Extreme Rainfall Event in the Hangzhou Bay Region

Chen

¹

,

Wu

²

,

Dong

³

et al. 2022

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The impacts of topography and urbanization on an extreme rainfall (ER) event in the Hangzhou Bay (HZB) region were investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with one control simulation and three artificial scenarios of no‐HZB, no‐mountains on the south bank of HZB, and no‐urban. Thirty members with different combinations of physical parameterizations were considered for each scenario. The control test results were evaluated and they showed that the model well reproduced the ER that occurred in the HZB region, and the ensemble results were valuable and credible. The existence of HZB, mountains, and urbanization would increase the ensemble mean of accumulated precipitation by 52.07%, 37.11%, and 9.35%, and the probability of heavy rainfall by about 25%, 20%, and 15% in the main rain belt region, respectively. In addition, these factors also introduced more uncertainties in the same physical scheme combination. The impacts of these factors on the distribution, intensity, and mechanism were different. The comparison results showed that the existence of HZB played the most important role in this ER event by the remarkable influence of low‐level wind field and horizontal convergence, followed by the existence of mountains, which mainly affected the distribution of rainfall caused by the airflow climbing up the hill before the mountain. Although urbanization exerted positive effects on this ER event, the impact was relatively small and locally near the urban regions compared with the other two factors.

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“…Recent studies show that convection‐permitting models substantially improve the simulation of local storms as the details of convection organization are better represented (e.g., Fowler, Ali, et al., 2021). Additionally, there are unique urban‐scale processes which contribute to enhanced urban precipitation (Doan et al., 2021; Kishtawal et al., 2010; Kusaka et al., 2014; Niyogi et al., 2011; Singh et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2021). They include increased convection from urban heat island (UHI) effect, urban roughness (Shem & Shepherd, 2009), mesoscale circulations (land‐sea breeze effect; Doan et al., 2021), differential aerosol loading between urban/surrounding natural land (Heever & Cotton, 2007), urban barrier effect (e.g., Bornstein et al., 1994).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation Over an Urban Agglomeration With Future Global Warming

Doan

¹

,

Chen

²

,

Kusaka

³

et al. 2022

Self Cite

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Recent decades have witnessed an increased occurrence of natural disasters, including floods associated with extreme precipitation (EP) in cities (IPCC AR6, 2022). Making cities safe, resilient, and sustainable is one of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2030 (SDG2030, especially Goal 11; United Nations, 2015). Achieving this goal is a challenge because cities are exposed to changing large-scale climatic feedbacks, and cities themselves are creating their microclimate. Such multiscale climatic forcing is causing non-stationarity in the climate system, which results in an increasing trend of unprecedented extreme weather and climate events that might occur in the future (Diffenbaugh et al., 2017;Fischer et al., 2021). As a result, urban areas that are designed based on historical hydroclimate conditions continue to be exposed to higher risk due to climate impacts, especially urban floods (Mishra et al., 2022;Ye & Niyogi, 2022). Indeed, it is recognized that for some regions, precipitation extremes will become more frequent, more widespread, and/or more intense during the 21st century, and cities will be disproportionately at higher risk (Meyer et al., 2020).A basis of framing the precipitation change due to climate warming is through the classical Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation (Fowler, Lenderink, et al., 2021;Lenderink & van Meijgaard, 2009). The CC equation defines the saturation specific humidity of the atmosphere as a function of temperature. Hence, specific humidity near the Earth's surface is anticipated to rise at a rate of approximately 7% per degree warming (K −1 ). Several past studies have shown that both short-(<1 day) and long-duration (>1 day) precipitation extremes intensify at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (∼7% K −1 ; Allan & Soden, 2008). In some regions,

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“…Recent studies show that convection-permitting models substantially improve the simulation of local storms as the details of convection organization are better represented (e.g., Fowler, Ali, et al, 2021). Additionally, there are unique urban-scale processes which contribute to enhanced urban precipitation (Doan et al, 2021;Kishtawal et al, 2010;Kusaka et al, 2014;Niyogi et al, 2011;Singh et al, 2020;Wang et al, 2021 ;Yang et al, 2021). They include increased convection from urban heat island (UHI) effect, urban roughness (Shem & Shepherd, 2009), mesoscale circulations (land-sea breeze effect; Doan et al, 2021), differential aerosol loading between urban/surrounding natural land (Heever & Cotton, 2007), urban barrier effect (e.g., Bornstein et al, 1994).…”

Section: 1029/2021ef002563mentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation over an Urban Agglomeration with Future Global Warming

Doan

¹

,

Chen

²

,

Kusaka

³

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recent decades have witnessed an increased occurrence of natural disasters, including floods associated with extreme precipitation (EP) in cities (IPCC AR6, 2022). Making cities safe, resilient, and sustainable is one of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2030 (SDG2030, especially Goal 11; United Nations, 2015). Achieving this goal is a challenge because cities are exposed to changing large-scale climatic feedbacks, and cities themselves are creating their microclimate. Such multiscale climatic forcing is causing non-stationarity in the climate system, which results in an increasing trend of unprecedented extreme weather and climate events that might occur in the future (Diffenbaugh et al., 2017;Fischer et al., 2021). As a result, urban areas that are designed based on historical hydroclimate conditions continue to be exposed to higher risk due to climate impacts, especially urban floods (Mishra et al., 2022;Ye & Niyogi, 2022). Indeed, it is recognized that for some regions, precipitation extremes will become more frequent, more widespread, and/or more intense during the 21st century, and cities will be disproportionately at higher risk (Meyer et al., 2020).A basis of framing the precipitation change due to climate warming is through the classical Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation (Fowler, Lenderink, et al., 2021;Lenderink & van Meijgaard, 2009). The CC equation defines the saturation specific humidity of the atmosphere as a function of temperature. Hence, specific humidity near the Earth's surface is anticipated to rise at a rate of approximately 7% per degree warming (K −1 ). Several past studies have shown that both short-(<1 day) and long-duration (>1 day) precipitation extremes intensify at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (∼7% K −1 ; Allan & Soden, 2008). In some regions,

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Urbanization Exacerbated Rainfall Over European Suburbs Under a Warming Climate

Cited by 31 publications

References 44 publications

Comparison of the Impacts of Topography and Urbanization on an Extreme Rainfall Event in the Hangzhou Bay Region

Comparison of the Impacts of Topography and Urbanization on an Extreme Rainfall Event in the Hangzhou Bay Region

Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation Over an Urban Agglomeration With Future Global Warming

Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation over an Urban Agglomeration with Future Global Warming

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