Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts

Cohen, Barney

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.04.008

Cited by 629 publications

(457 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…3 ). The world is currently experiencing massive demographic changes through differing rates of natural increase and net migration (Cohen 2004 ). These changes are crucial in terms of linking up the geopolitical realities and also prospects for rapid transitions to low carbon cities and economies in the respective contexts.…”

Section: Population Projections For Urban Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Synthesis of Global Urbanization Projections

Fragkias

Güneralp

Seto

et al. 2013

Urbanization, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities

104

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Section: Population Projections For Urban Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Synthesis of Global Urbanization Projections

Fragkias

Güneralp

Seto

et al. 2013

Urbanization, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities

104

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“…Land use/cover change has widespread influence in many fields, not only in urban planning, but also in transportation, environment, policy, and economics [2][3][4][5]. For developed and developing countries, land use/cover has been divided into two categories: urban improvement and urban growth [6]. Compared to developing nations, the trend of land use/cover change in industrialized nations is more crucial to establish a green and rich environment and to enhance comprehensive competitiveness in the world [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

2018

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Abstract:Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD) and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region.

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“…1,2 While in the first half of the twentieth century urbanization was predominantly confined to countries that enjoyed the highest levels of per capita income, in the more recent past and for the near future, the most visible changes in urbanization have occurred and will continue to occur in middle-and low-income countries. 3 The essential feature of current patterns of urbanization in Africa is that in many countries, the pace of urbanization has outstripped economic growth, making it difficult for national and urban authorities to provide affordable housing, quality social services, or sufficient employment to the growing urban populations. 4 Between 1980 and 2000, the region's urban population grew by about 4.7% per year, 1 while per capita gross domestic product dropped by 0.8% per annum.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Provision and Use of Maternal Health Services among Urban Poor Women in Kenya: What Do We Know and What Can We Do?

2008

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In sub-Saharan Africa, the unprecedented population growth that started in the second half of the twentieth century has evolved into unparalleled urbanization and an increasing proportion of urban dwellers living in slums and shanty towns, making it imperative to pay greater attention to the health problems of the urban poor. In particular, urgent efforts need to focus on maternal health. Despite the lack of reliable trend data on maternal mortality, some investigators now believe that progress in maternal health has been very slow in sub-Saharan Africa. This study uses a unique combination of health facility-and individual-level data collected in the slums of Nairobi, Kenya to: (1) describe the provision of obstetric care in the Nairobi informal settlements; (2) describe the patterns of antenatal and delivery care, notably in terms of timing, frequency, and quality of care; and (3) draw policy implications aimed at improving maternal health among the rapidly growing urban poor populations. It shows that the study area is deprived of public health services, a finding which supports the view that low-income urban residents in developing countries face significant obstacles in accessing health care. This study also shows that despite the high prevalence of antenatal care (ANC), the proportion of women who made the recommended number of visits or who initiated the visit in the first trimester of pregnancy remains low compared to Nairobi as a whole and, more importantly, compared to rural populations. Bivariate analyses show that household wealth, education, parity, and place of residence were closely associated with frequency and timing of ANC and with place of delivery. Finally, there is a strong linkage between use of antenatal care and place of delivery. The findings of this study call for urgent attention by Kenya's Ministry of Health and local authorities to the void of quality health services in poor urban communities and the need to provide focused and sustained health education geared towards promoting use of obstetric services.

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Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts

Cited by 629 publications

References 14 publications

A Synthesis of Global Urbanization Projections

A Synthesis of Global Urbanization Projections

Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Provision and Use of Maternal Health Services among Urban Poor Women in Kenya: What Do We Know and What Can We Do?

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