Abstract:Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD) and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region.

Rapid urbanization is one of the most concerning issues in the 21st century because of its significant impacts on various fields, including agriculture, forestry, ecology, and climate. The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon, highly related to the rapid urbanization, has attracted considerable attention from both academic scholars and governmental policymakers because of its direct influence on citizens’ daily life. Land surface temperature (LST) is a widely used indicator to assess the intensity of UHI significantly affected by the local land use/cover (LULC). In this study, we used the Landsat time-series data to derive the LULC composition and LST distribution maps of Nanjing in 2000, 2014, and 2018. A correlation analysis was carried out to check the relationship between LST and the density of each class of LULC. We found out that cropland and forest in Nanjing are helping to cool the city with different degrees of cooling effects depending on the location and LULC composition. Then, a Cellar Automata (CA)-Markov model was applied to predict the LULC conditions of Nanjing in 2030 and 2050. Based on the simulated LULC maps and the relationship between LST and LULC, we delineated high- and moderate-LST related risk areas in the city of Nanjing. Our findings are valuable for the local government to reorganize the future development zones in a way to control the urban climate environment and to keep a healthy social life within the city.

An urban heat island (UHI) is a serious phenomenon associated with built environments and presents threats to human health. It is projected that UHI intensity will rise to record levels in the following decades due to rapid urban expansion, as two-thirds of the world population is expected to live in urban areas by 2050. Nevertheless, the last two decades have seen a considerable increase in the number of studies on surface UHI (SUHI)—a form of UHI quantified based on land surface temperature (LST) derived from satellite imagery—and its relationship with the land use/cover (LULC) changes. This surge has been facilitated by the availability of freely accessible five-decade archived remotely sensed data, the use of state-of-art analysis methods, and advancements in computing capabilities. The authors of this systematic review aimed to summarize, compare, and critically analyze multiple case studies—carried out from 2001 to 2020—in terms of various aspects: study area characteristics, data sources, methods for LULC classification and SUHI quantification, mechanisms of interaction coupled with linking techniques between SUHI intensity with LULC spatial and temporal changes, and proposed alleviation actions. The review could support decision-makers and pave the way for scholars to conduct future research, especially in vulnerable cities that have not been well studied.

Finding accurate methods for estimating and mapping land prices at the macro-scale based on publicly accessible and low-cost spatial data is an essential step in producing a meaningful reference for regional planners. This asset would assist them in making economically justified decisions in favor of key investors for development projects and post-disaster recovery efforts. Since 2005, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport of Japan has made land price data open to the public in the form of observations at dispersed locations. Although this data is useful, it does not provide complete information at every site for all market participants. Therefore, estimating and mapping land prices based on sound statistical theories is required. This paper presents a comparative study of spatial prediction of land prices in 2015 in Fukushima prefecture based on geostatistical methods and machine learning algorithms. Land use, elevation, and socioeconomic factors, including population density and distance to railway stations, were used for modeling. Results show the superiority of the random forest algorithm. Overall, land prices are distributed unevenly across the prefecture with the most expensive land located in the western region characterized by flat topography and the availability of well-connected and highly dense economic hotspots.

In tourism-dependent cities, investigating the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of tourist flows is crucial for better urban planning in both steady and perturbed states. In recent years, researchers have started relying more on photo-based, geotagged social data, which offer insights about tourists, popular hotspots, and mobility patterns. However, distinguishing between tourists and locals from this data is problematic since residence information is often not provided. While previous studies rely on heuristic (e.g., period of stay) and probabilistic (Shannon entropy) approaches, this paper proposes a method for classifying tourists and residents based on machine learning (ML) algorithms and considering parameters that could explain the variability between the two (e.g., weather, mobility, and photo content). This approach was applied to Flickr users’ geotagged photos taken in Tokyo’s 23 special wards from July 2008 to December 2019. The results show that stacked ensemble (SE) models are superior to models based on five supervised-learning algorithms, including gradient boosting machine (GBM), generalized linear model (GLM), distributed random forest (DRF), deep learning (DL), and extremely randomized trees (XRT). Temporal entropy (TEN), mobility on workdays, and frequent visits to amusement venues and crowded places influenced how users were classified. While temporal distribution showed similar monthly/hourly patterns, spatial distribution varied. The proposed approach might pave the way for scholars to carry out future tourism research on different topics and subsequently support policymakers in the decision-making process, specifically in urban settings.

Abstract. Understanding the behaviors of both locals and tourists is essential for good city planning, especially in tourism-dependent cities. This study aimed to explore the disparities between the two groups on the basis of their geotagged photos taken in Tokyo during the last decade (2009–2019). The photos were collected from the photosharing platform Flickr. Locals and tourists were then identified. Next, a transfer-learning-based convolutional neural network model was developed to multi-label photos into eight general categories reflecting the major frequented activities/locations, including nature, amusement, and culture. Additional information was assigned to these records, including distances to various nearest points of interest. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to investigate the differences between locals and tourists. Results showed that tourists have a strong preference for amusement while locals are attracted to nature. In contrast to tourists who are not followed by job obligations, locals’ photos are mostly taken during the weekends. Given their familiarity with the area, locals tend to cover a wider spatial extent compared to tourists who are concentrated near the Yamanote railway loop line connecting most of the tourist attractions.

This study examines the Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends in eight key Moroccan cities from 1990 to 2020, emphasizing the influential factors and disparities between coastal and inland areas. Geographically weighted regression (GWR), machine learning (ML) algorithms, namely XGBoost and LightGBM, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) methods are utilized. The study observes that urban areas are often cooler due to the presence of urban heat sinks (UHSs), more noticeably in coastal cities. However, LST is seen to increase across all cities due to urbanization and the degradation of vegetation cover. The increase in LST is more pronounced in inland cities surrounded by barren landscapes. Interestingly, XGBoost frequently outperforms LightGBM in the analyses. ML models and SHAP demonstrate efficacy in deciphering urban heat dynamics despite data quality and model tuning challenges. The study’s results highlight the crucial role of ongoing urbanization, topography, and the existence of water bodies and vegetation in driving LST dynamics. These findings underscore the importance of sustainable urban planning and vegetation cover in mitigating urban heat, thus having significant policy implications. Despite its contributions, this study acknowledges certain limitations, primarily the use of data from only four discrete years, thereby overlooking inter-annual, seasonal, and diurnal variations in LST dynamics.

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