Urban Growth and Demographic Dynamics in Southern Europe: Toward a New Statistical Approach to Regional Science

Abstract

Metropolitan growth in Europe has resulted in drastic changes of urban forms, socio-spatial structures and land-use patterns due to sequential processes of urbanization, suburbanization and re-urbanization. To assess latent shifts from mono-centric models towards more disarticulated and decentralized settlement configurations, the present study evaluates spatio-temporal patterns of growth between the 1920s and the 2010s in three Mediterranean cities with different structure and functions (Barcelona: compact and moderately polycentric; Rome: dispersed, medium-density; Athens: mono-centric, hyper-compact). To identify and characterize long-term urban transformations, an original approach was illustrated in this study, based on a multivariate analysis of 13 indicators resulting from descriptive statistics and linear regression modeling the relationship between population density and distance from inner cities. The empirical results of this study indicate that Barcelona, Rome and Athens have experienced different urbanization cycles, characterized by a (more or less) concentrated distribution of population along urban gradients. Despite similarities in demographic dynamics and planning practices, these processes have determined (i) a mostly centralized growth in Barcelona, (ii) a relatively dispersed and discontinuous spatial structure in Rome, and (iii) a steep decline of population density with the distance from downtown Athens. Compact urban expansion, population decline and urban de-concentration were finally assessed using the analytical approach proposed in this study.peri-urban landscapes [13]. Metropolitan areas in Europe have undergone changes in both structure and functions reflecting sequential cycles of compact and dispersed urbanization [14][15][16].The inherent differences in urbanization patterns and processes across countries make the identification of spatio-temporal dynamics of urban change progressively more difficult when considering the effects and consequences of exurban development [17][18][19][20]. Based on the intrinsic nature of societies and economic systems, recent transformations from mono-centric to polycentric structures have attracted rising attention among the social sciences [21][22][23][24]. The identification of mono-centric and polycentric patterns of growth has benefited from a broad range of approaches derived from different disciplines [5,[25][26][27]. Being an explicit target of the European Spatial Development Perspective [28], polycentrism in Europe has influenced forms of human settlements and socio-spatial structures altering the short-and medium-term dynamics of economic activity [29][30][31][32].Until the early 1990s, large metropolitan areas in Mediterranean Europe have been frequently considered as regions with structurally compact urban forms and functionally monocentric spatial organizations [33][34][35]. Leontidou [36] highlighted similarities in the individual trajectories of urban growth, leading to convergent socio-spatial profiles and homogeneous economic struc...

Demographic Resilience in Local Systems: An Empirical Approach with Census Data

“…Considering social transitions, a better knowledge of new demographic scenarios opens up a reflection on the long-term mechanisms regulating population re-distribution over wider regions [131], contributing to the more precise identification of 'resilient' and 'fragile' districts and the delineation of opportunities for regional development policy [132]. Assuming comparative, long-term analyses of population distribution (and re-distribution) over space as necessary tools for informing appropriate policies for local systems' resilience [133], strategies promoting local development in demographically fragile regions should consider a polycentric expansion of human settlements, attracting population in smaller-while economically dynamic-centers, as an example of good practices for enhancing socioeconomic resilience [134].…”

From Historical Narratives to Circular Economy: De-Complexifying the “Desertification” Debate

“…This assumption highlights the importance of the spatial organization of regions and countries, the integration of economic contexts, and the reduction of social inequalities, all being reflected in the inherent transition from linear approaches to a more complex thinking [36], as reflected in the present study. The literature scrutinized in this paper and, consequently, the typological approaches identified and profiled, represent a sort of operational gradient from a linear, simplified, and mostly one-dimensional interpretation of land degradation, to a more complex, non-linear and articulated approaches to multi-dimensional local systems experiencing a progressive transition toward sustainable (or unsustainable) development [148][149][150].…”

Land Use Change, Spatial Interaction, and Sustainable Development in the Metropolitan Urban Areas, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

“…Spatial integration that runs parallel with urban agglomeration causes spatial interaction towards the formation of the Metropolitan Mamminasata urban activity system. The understanding of the spatial interaction among cities will help to strengthen the functional linkage within urban agglomeration, optimize the spatial layout of industries, promote the competitiveness of urban agglomeration, and provide policy implications for regional sustainable Land 2020, 9, 95 5 of 43 development [35]. Furthermore, spatial interaction associated with rural-urban migration, information, capital, and commodity flows among cities across space in a city cluster affects the growth and spatial patterns of hierarchical cities [36].…”