Demographic Resilience in Local Systems: An Empirical Approach with Census Data

Abstract

This study estimates demographic resilience in local socioeconomic systems of Southern Europe using long-term population dynamics. We assume attractive places with a continuously expanding (resident) population as ‘demographically resilient’, and locations experiencing a persistent decline of population as more fragile to external shocks. Based on these premises, a comprehensive assessment of demographic resilience in more than 1000 municipalities along the urban–rural gradient in Greece, a Mediterranean country with marked regional disparities, was carried out between 1961 and 2011. Municipalities were considered representative of homogeneous local communities, especially in rural areas. The results of non-parametric correlations suggest how basic geographical gradients (coastal–inland and urban–rural) have significantly influenced the demographic resilience of Greek municipalities. These findings outline two contrasting spatial patterns that reflect (i) continuous expansion of peri-urban local communities and (ii) a particularly intense rural shrinkage, linking depopulation to land abandonment and scarce accessibility of inland districts. While long-term population growth in Greece has progressively re-shaped the intrinsic divide in urban and rural areas, the traditional gap in central and peripheral districts is still reflected in the spatial polarization between the ‘demographically resilient’, socially dynamic coastal locations and the ‘demographically fragile’ inland, economically marginal places. These results indicate the persistence of a center–periphery model characterizing long-term settlement expansion in Greece, with spatial patterns delineating ‘resilient’ and ‘fragile’ districts based essentially on infrastructures, accessibility, and amenities.

Demographic Resilience in the Rural Area of Romania. A Statistical-Territorial Approach of the Last Hundred Years

“…The indicators used largely coincide with those proposed in the model above. More recently, Colantoni et al [5] (2020) used, at the level of the whole Greece, a model with similar variables, adapted to its specific situation, primarily the presence of maritime coasts. In the case of Romania, we considered it necessary to introduce variables meant to test the importance of agricultural activities, including from the perspective of soil quality or drought risk, the Romanian rural area being still agricultural by excellence.…”

“…However, in order to become resilient, a system manifests certain vulnerability; consequently, the more it is exposed to disruptions, the more it practices its resilience capacity. Thus, in some recent works, demographic resilience is seen as the ability to maintain a long-term expansion trend (numerical growth) [5]. The most palpable and accessible indirect indicator is consequently the change in population size, expressed by the positive growth rate, which can prove resistance to regressive trends or recovery after a period of disruption.…”

“…Similarly, other authors [33] consider that economic status, the level of service to the population and accessibility are the most important drivers of depopulation, as estimated by means of population dynamics. Colantoni et al [5] (2020) also emphasize the importance of the basic geographical gradients, generated by the specific position (mountain-plain, urban-rural etc. ), in connection with the use of long series of data on the numerical evolution of the population.…”

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“…ВОПРОСЫ ТЕОРИИ И МЕТОДОЛОГИИ что демографическая устойчивость отражает способность страны (или региона) обеспечивать количественное и качественное воспроизводство демографических структур в конкретных исторических, социально-экономических, правовых и природных условиях (Nikolaiets et al, 2023). Кроме того, демографическая устойчивость рассматривается как способность поддерживать долгосрочную тенденцию к увеличению численности населения (Colantoni et al, 2020).…”

Evaluation Model for Sustainable Development of Settlement System

“…The development issues of settlement systems are of great relevance for solving land-use planning problems for European region and beyond. The most relevant urban and regional planning research publications related to this field of knowledge are focused on conservation of rural landscapes under urban expansion [1][2][3], spatial and socioeconomic resilience of rural areas [4][5][6], introduction of new instruments for sustainable rural development [7], economic transformation in rural areas [8,9], spatial temporal development [10][11][12], environmental and economic aspects [13,14], social and demographic criteria [15][16][17], land use planning [18,19], historical and cultural features [20][21][22][23], ecosystem studies [24,25], changes in rural settlement system [26,27], and modeling periurban areas [28][29][30].…”