Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data

Ntoumos, Athanasios; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Zittis, George; Lelieveld, Jos

doi:10.3390/atmos11080813

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…The indices are easy to interpret, give robust results therefore they have many applications in climate research and other related areas [2]. They have been used to investigate and monitor global changes in extreme events with observational data [9,10,13,14], with projected future data [2,11,[15][16][17] or to evaluate model performance [12,18]. The indices also enable regional analyses of extreme event changes therefore model performance evaluated also regionally [19] and the regional changes in temperature and precipitation extreme events have been assessed for many parts of the world during the recent decades, such as in Australia [20], North America [21,22], the United States [23], the Mediterranean Basin [24], countries of Western Indian Ocean [25], the Arab Region [26], China [5,27,28], Iran [29], Egypt [30], Central and South Asia [31], East Asia [32], Ethiopia [33][34][35], Saudi Arabia [36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a complementary study to the work of Sillmann et al [2], the aim of this study is to investigate the projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by ETCCDI over Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Region 13 that is Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the end of the 21st century. The primary tools for studying possible future changes in climate mean, variability and climate extremes are the simulations with global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) [11,14]. Since the CGCMs have coarse resolution (100-300 km) and they have no topographic information at finer scales, they are not suitable for generating detailed results [46].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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“…Globally, many studies have reported an increase in temperature period indices and a decrease in cold and frost indices using CMIP5 models. Examples include research in the United States (Barnett et al 2012), Mainland China (Ying et al 2020), South Asia (Ullah et al 2020), and the Middle East -North Africa (MENA) (Ntoumos et al 2020). Therefore, it can be acknowledged that global warming in Iran will be very intense in the coming years and this increasing intensity will be signi cant for indices related to duration.…”

Section: The Seasonal Anomaly Of Extreme Temperature Indices (Eti) In Iranmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical variability and future changes in seasonal extreme temperature over Iran

Zarrin

Dadashi-Roudbari

Hassani

2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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The extreme temperature indices (ETI) are an important indicator of climate change, the detection of their changes over the next years can play an important role in the Climate Action Plan (CAP). In this study, four temperature indices (Mean of daily minimum temperature (TN), Mean of daily maximum temperature (TX), Cold-spell duration index (CSDI), and Warm-spell duration index (WSDI)) were de ned by ETCCDI and two new indices of the Maximum number of consecutive frost days (CFD) and the Maximum number of consecutive summer days (CSU) were calculated to examine ETIs in Iran under climate change conditions. We used minimum and maximum daily temperature of ve General circulation models (GCMs) including HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M from the set of CMIP5 Bias-Correction models. We investigated Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 -during the historical and future (2021-2060 and 2061-2100) periods. The performance of each model was evaluated using the Taylor diagram on a seasonal scale. Among models, GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES models showed the highest, and NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR models showed the lowest performance in Iran. Then an ensemble model was generated using Independence Weighted Mean (IWM) method. The results of multimodel ensembles (MME) showed a higher performance compared to individual CMIP5 models in all seasons. Also, the uncertainty value was signi cantly reduced, and the correlation value of the MME model reached 0.95 in all seasons. Additionally, it is found that WSDI and CSU indices showed positive anomalies in future periods and CSDI and CFD showed negative anomalies throughout Iran. Also, at the end of the 21 st century, no cold spells are projected in almost every part of Iran. The CSU index showed that Iran's summer days are increasing sharply, according to the results of the RCP8.5 scenario in spring (MAM) and autumn (SON), the CSU will increase by 18.79 and 20.51 days, respectively at the end of the 21 st century. It is projected that in the future, the spring and autumn seasons will be shorter and, summers, will be much longer than before.

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“…Globally, many studies have reported an increase in temperature period indices and a decrease in cold and frost indices using CMIP5 models. Examples include research in the United States (Barnett et al 2012) (Ntoumos et al 2020). Therefore, it can be acknowledged that global warming in Iran will be very intense in the coming years and this increasing intensity will be signi cant for indices related to duration.…”

Section: The Seasonal Anomaly Of Extreme Temperature Indices (Eti) In Iranmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Variability And Future Changes In Seasonal Extreme Temperature Over Iran

Zarrin

Dadashi-Roudbari

Hassani

2021

Preprint

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The extreme temperature indices (ETI) are an important indicator of climate change, the detection of their changes over the next years can play an important role in the Climate Action Plan (CAP). In this study, four temperature indices (Mean of daily minimum temperature (TN), Mean of daily maximum temperature (TX), Cold-spell duration index (CSDI), and Warm-spell duration index (WSDI)) were defined by ETCCDI and two new indices of the Maximum number of consecutive frost days (CFD) and the Maximum number of consecutive summer days (CSU) were calculated to examine ETIs in Iran under climate change conditions. We used minimum and maximum daily temperature of five General circulation models (GCMs) including HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M from the set of CMIP5 Bias-Correction models. We investigated Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 – during the historical (1965-2005) and future (2021-2060 and 2061-2100) periods. The performance of each model was evaluated using the Taylor diagram on a seasonal scale. Among models, GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES models showed the highest, and NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR models showed the lowest performance in Iran. Then an ensemble model was generated using Independence Weighted Mean (IWM) method. The results of multi-model ensembles (MME) showed a higher performance compared to individual CMIP5 models in all seasons. Also, the uncertainty value was significantly reduced, and the correlation value of the MME model reached 0.95 in all seasons. Additionally, it is found that WSDI and CSU indices showed positive anomalies in future periods and CSDI and CFD showed negative anomalies throughout Iran. Also, at the end of the 21st century, no cold spells are projected in almost every part of Iran. The CSU index showed that Iran's summer days are increasing sharply, according to the results of the RCP8.5 scenario in spring (MAM) and autumn (SON), the CSU will increase by 18.79 and 20.51 days, respectively at the end of the 21st century. It is projected that in the future, the spring and autumn seasons will be shorter and, summers, will be much longer than before.

show abstract

Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data

Cited by 21 publications

References 63 publications

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Historical variability and future changes in seasonal extreme temperature over Iran

Historical Variability And Future Changes In Seasonal Extreme Temperature Over Iran

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